bar: But there is a difference between long term holding like yours and the willingness to commit new money into the market at present valuations. Nobody can perfectly call a top or a bottom. But you use valuation indicators to judge where we are in the cycle. Tobin's Q ratio which I mention a lot is flashing that the market is the most overbought in history. It could continue to get more overbought for sure. But at age 64 I'm not going to risk my money in the general market at this present time. Hence my overweighting of natural resource equities and bullion/coins.
There is an old adage that says never mistake liquidity for solvency. Right now the Government is spreading money around like never before in history relative to base GDP. Companies, especially the large blue chips you've grown rich on, are reaping the lion's share of the rewards. But there will come a point when all the spending by the Government and all the money creation by the Fed is going to trigger a Dollar crisis. It might not be tomorrow, or even this year. But it will happen. The Fed might be supplying liquidity but they are in the process enabling the Federal government to render itself insolvent. I don't know what the outcome of that is going to be. But I'm not sure that at my age I can withstand a 50%, 60% or 70% crash and hope that it recovers back in my lifetime. All this is so difficult to judge because we are in unprecedented times. The government has never before ignored fiscal realities like it is doing now, not even to fight World Wars.
