Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Insync_2000]

Further to my last post regarding generics likely leaving the US market due to risk and supply shortages which are likely to prove to be chronic.

The likelihood of generics eventually leaving the Vascepa market in the US is based on two observations.

One is the fact that the insurance company UHC and it's safe to assume others to follow will no longer cover Vascepa for Marine indication with UHC stopping coverage come May 1 2021. This is likely to carry forward to other insurers due to the difference in cost of providing Lovaza or fibrates for the Marine indication as compared to Vascepa.

If insurance companies no longer cover Vascepa for marine indication it in fact removes the entire market from both Amarin and the generics to the benefit of Lovaza or fibrates. That market is lost to Amarin either way.

What becomes important than is that any prescriptions filled and paid for by the insurance companies has to be for the Reduce It indication and has to be filled with brand name Vascepa otherwise it is undoubtedly infringement. The is no grey area left. Insurance companies no long cover Marine therefore anything they cover is Reduce It and if it is filled with generic, its automatically infringement.

This also goes to supply. Suppliers to the generics are not likely to fund expansion to supply if they are aware of the fact the the only market available to the generics is clearly infringement and is likely to be short lived potentially leaving them with no way to recover their expansion costs

At the end of the day, it appears as though the generics will find themselves between a rock and a hard place forcing them out of the US market with respect to Vascepa.

It may be why Reddy has not launched and Teva has indicated that they won't.