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NY Gold Nearest Futures - CAUTION temp high »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 10, 2021

The NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today at 174480 is immediately trading down about 7.93% for the year from last year's settlement of 189510. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will deline further on a monthly level. This price action here in April is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 175940 intraday and is still trading above that high of 175740.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during January. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Nearest Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 5 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Nearest Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 174200 and overhead resistance forming above at 174670. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 5th at 175940, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 8th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 175940 to 172160. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 5th reaching 175940 has exceeded the previous high of 175420 made back during the week of March 15th. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 171660. Additional support is to be found at 168300. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 196250 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 207800 back during August 2020. Of course, that was the major high in this market, which means we have a downtrend for the past 7 months. Even so, we have not elected any Monthly sell signal to date from the turning point of 08/01 on this monthly time level from that major high so there is still important underlying support which needs to be broken to change the trend on this time horizon. Critical support still underlies this market at 144610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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