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Re: jamesnhansen post# 36205

Monday, 03/15/2021 11:35:39 AM

Monday, March 15, 2021 11:35:39 AM

Post# of 43784
The only gotcha is that we had the "there are not as many events as expected" and increased enrollment.

Maybe due to dramatic effectiveness, sure.

Maybe due to some kind of delay in all that mess and the possibility "some or all" may not be included from that set.

etc.,

Dunno. All I know is, it is possible to leverage this as well as some leeway in SOC expectation say 5% maybe as much as 9% due to the "small sample size" compared to SEER data.

Looking for all possible additives (or subtractives, depending on the view there)

The "returning" of these, was that they were at one time pulled from the CVM site in the monthly enrollment, and later came back, after arb.

( to be sure, afaik, I was the first to project based on the monthlies and noting how dramatic a difference it makes to do that. The summary "resurrection" sheet I sent you came up after it no longer carried much significance, the simple math was enough coarse grained yearly, as it was already beyond conservative in expectations vs. the same thing monthly )

Point being, this is something I lived through, getting and updating the monthly enrollment.



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