Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - WARNING Potential WATERFALL Event Unfolding »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 20, 2021

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed below our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 177740 is immediately trading down about 6.21% for the year from last year's settlement of 189510. Presently, this market has been rising for 2 months going into February reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 175900 while it even trading beneath last month's low of 180080.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2020. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 5 years in the making.

This market still remains in a broader bullish posture warranting a classification as a Bull Market. Nonetheless, the Weekly level on the indicating models shows inherent weakness with signs of overhead resistance at this point in time. However, the last reversal to be elected on the Weekly level was a Bearish the week of February 1st.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Nearest Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 178810.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 4th at 196250, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 30th. We have been generally trading down for the past 6 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 10.36%.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of January 4th reaching 196250 failed to exceed the previous high of 196610 made back during the week of November 9th in 2020. That rally amounted to only five weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of November 30th but has closed back above it and is holding for now. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 6 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.

Interestingly, the NY Copper Nearest Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 10 months since the low established back in March 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 167610 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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