Yes, your analysis is similar to mine. When I have time, I’ll post something in more detail.
Summary:
$500M - $1B peak revenue forecast USA & EU.
Assumed ASP of 300 $/dose. After conversations with management, I think ASPs may be higher.
Assuming gross margins of 75%.
Assuming 12 yrs. exclusivity wAMD. May be opportunity to extend.
Getting prefilled syringe approval will increase penetration. Expect this to follow 1.5 years after wAMD FDA approval.
Your peak revenue multiple look reasonable. I’m at 5x revenue, but I’m probably low. Bad habit of mine.
Milestones:
- 2Q 2021: safety study data released
- August 2021: pivotal wAMD data
- YE 2021: wAMD filing USA
- late 2021/early 2022: initiate NORSE 4
- late 2021/early 2022: initiate NORSE 5
- late 2021/early 2022: initiate NORSE 6
- 1H 2022 wAMD: filing Europe
- Late 2022: BRVO filing
- 2023: DME filing
Risk are new innovative products, but there's not been a much progress recently:
- Roche eyes an uncertain market for faricimab | Evaluate
- Roche amps up its bispecific attack on Eylea with more PhIII data — but just how threatening is it? – Endpoints News (endpts.com)
- Safety scare knocks Novartis' Beovu | Evaluate
- US regulator still doesn’t buy abicipar | Evaluate
- Why Regenxbio’s eye gene therapy would have to be the cheapest yet | Evaluate
- Conbercept: New Generation of Product for Treatment of nAMD Completes 36-week Primary Endpoint Visits of Phase III Trial (yahoo.com)
- FDA issued a complete response letter for the Darpin anti-VEGF molecule
