Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Knee Jerk Low »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 6, 2021

The NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today at 181300 is immediately trading down about 4.33% for the year from last year's settlement of 189510. At present, this market has been rising for 2 months going into February reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 178460 yet it is trading below last month's close of 185030.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2020. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 5 years in the making.

This market still remains in a broader bullish posture warranting a classification as a Bull Market. Nonetheless, the Weekly level on the indicating models shows inherent weakness with signs of overhead resistance at this point in time. However, the last reversal to be elected on the Weekly level was a Bearish the week of February 1st.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Nearest Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 183040 and support forming below at 180080. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 30th at 176720, which was down 17 weeks from the high made back during the week of August 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 182840. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.

Interestingly, the NY Copper Nearest Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 10 months since the low established back in March 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 167500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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