123Tom's TA study group

[123tom]

A first look at AVXL math target 11

For a long time, in the last year or two we have been watching the normal price action move in technical patterns ,like a road map,that can be plotted and followed using the Fibonacci math and Elliott Wave patterns.This has been my main style of charting for about 5 years now. Everyone has their own charting system and there isnt any single way that everyone is supposed to use. we all develop our own styles with the tool kit we like.I think what works is when you focus on becoming expert at a set of tools and fine tune your vision using the tools that speak like a language to you. These tools I use are part of my mental vision now.In that regard,I understand my charts might look a total mess to others ,but what I see are energy and magnetic math structures that show up in the picture by using these tools. Many times, the best targets are also found by simply looking at the central steps of support and resistance, pivot points,and basic patterns like head and shoulders,and some meaningful candle sticks, and the momentum indicators like RSI and stochastics. I also like to use the Ichimoku Cloud pattern.
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Using the Fibonacci retrace/projection tool, simple to see how the first major rally wave,from 2.25 Bottom to the 5.59 Top,that first rally wave, will project the next targets at 7.60 area ,and then at 11 dollars.
In terms of Elliott Wave pattern, the first wave stops at the 5.60 target area. The Wave 2, pullback comes back and then the Wave 3 targets the correct 7.60 area (7.60-8.60 area,would be the Elliott Wave 3 target zone.)

When a rally pattern has followed closely along 2 Fib math tracks like this, it tells me that my road map design is worth watching and is technically correct as it runs along algorithmic trading systems.I dont know how to explain it any other way. Wall street trading systems are computer trading systems in the modern age and they Must be using Fibonacci math as part of their system programming.
So now, that the Elliott wave pattern has made its Wave 3, peaking at 7.60 area (7.60-8.60) where would it go from here. The Fib math says 11 dollars is the next major target and Elliott theory says this 'should' be the Finished rally in this pattern.
If we use this system to presume that 11 dollar area is a finished rally for the current cycle... it then shows where the technical pullback targets are on the Fibonacci pattern. a pullback to retest the 8.50-6.50 area centred around 7 dollars.

The chart pattern pictures like head and shoulders and bases at support ,what used to be resistance are showing this 6.50 area as the place to find a support base. A 'shallow' pullback from 11 dollars would target 8 dollars, a normal target at 7 and a strong downwave target at 6.50/6.00 area. A 50% haircut from 11 dollars is 5.50 area.
A completely premature (gamed) rally to 11 dollars has the wall street game potential to get completely erased, like we've seen many times, and with No news coming, I must remain cautious here,for the chance that all this giant rally could get completely evaporated, like it did 5 years ago from 14 dollars down to 3 dollars. Maybe now, that would translate this time into a collapse back to 6 dollars,I cant predict it. but What force of bullish fundamental strength will say that AVXL is ready right now to shatter the recent pattern, which had prices ranging from 4.50 to 7.50 and hanging around 5 and 6 dollars...and now all of a sudden it doubles to 12 and 11?? and looks pumped up to wish for 17/18/20/25 ?? but isnt that premature just yet? --------------------------------------------------------
IF I imagine that the true technical rally top is this 11/12 dollar area, then the pullback on a true technical chart is looking at 8 dollars,7 dollars and maybe 6 dollars.
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There is also a more precisely drawn Fib measurement that has the finish rally at 10 dollars. but right now its safe to see 11,and maybe 10 as the central targets.
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A taste of great things to come, for AVXL success when they get FDA approval or great test results, ok, we have a glimpse of prices at 25 and 28 dollars now, like we did at 14 dollars 5 years ago.
Maybe we will see these successes in the summer. and IF this surge is premature, and we get back to reexamining the true technical picture that was in place for a few years, then I would be looking at this area 11/12/13/14 as the toppy top, and looking for the next major pullback to retest 8/7/maybe 6 dollars in this technical pattern.
6 years ago ,when we got that surge to 14.80, I was screaming about a premature bubble pump. The mistake I made back then was I presumed that the rally would continue,or I decided to play those odds that it would,and I started buying more way too early ,way too high., at 11,10,9,6.50, and watched it continue collapsing all the way to 3.16, and now I was screwed holding so many shares way too expensive. The next rally bounce only reached 8 dollars, and after that fell again to 2.42 and then 1.83 then 1.25 and the Great Bottom. it was a disaster to be owning shares at 10 dollars back then. This time I have learned my lesson ...I hope.
So for me,I am not buying more here at 11. and not sure even at 8 dollars, I'll have to watch and see how it all moves in the coming weeks.
I own a good core. I dont intend to be greedy. I do intend to always be cautious with AVXL.
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The technical AVXL chart before the Giant rally

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