A belated thanks for the welcome and wanted to send some thoughts on a buyout in my birdbrainy way. The many posts about a buyout lead me to think it is more likely to occur within days or weeks than months. And that it might well already be completed.
I've tried to think about this from the perspective of a buyer. Once European approval formally happens, the 10-year clock is ticking. If I'm a big pharma, I don't want the inexperienced Amarin crew with a bunch of new hires in Europe fumbling through the first few months when key decisions must be made about who handles negotiations in each country over pricing and such. Then a buyout occurs six months down the road and now I have to replace or amend whatever Amarin's been doing? I'm not going to let that happen. I want to own the product and have my people handling it all from the start. Every day wasted is time off my 10-year protection from competitors. As for negotiating price on the U.S. market, I dispute JT's claim that peak U.S. sales will be $5 billion annually, but I'll accept working off a max of $3 billion if he'll agree that I'll only credit Amarin for retaining 40 percent of sales rather than the 60 percent JT insists upon.
As a buyer, I'm pleased that JT quickly sued the generics, but hey, that was my idea because I don't want to be losing money on the product from the start so I need the U.S. market protected before European sales start to flow. Also, I know that the main purpose of the lawsuit was to scare off generics, insurers and anybody else trying to bust in on the heart indication. I'm not counting on a jury award two years from now. I know Amarin wants to get this sale done now too because it's being pressured by investors and it knows it can't do the European rollout from scratch, despite its earnings day comments designed to placate anxious investors. I know the COVID trials will turn out well, but I also know it mainly will aid advertising, since the positive results will only add Vascepa to the 50 other drugs or therapeutics touted as aiding in the fight against COVID. I know that investors think the COVID trials will be transformative, but they thought the same about the plaque reduction results.
China will eventually add $200 million to the annual income and Canada will boost it by another $20 million to $40 million at peak.
Also, as the buyer I've been privy to some of Amarin's new inventions like a combo statin-Vascepa pill and other planned improvements. And I know where the NASH trial is heading and have some anecdotal information about the Alzheimer's trial.
All in all, I settle on a number of $15 billion.
