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Experts say Google will be No. 1 in visitors in '07
USA TODAY, January 3, 2007

Internet search giant Google, which defied gravity last year, is set to become the world's most visited Internet site in 2007.

Google's revenue hit $7.2 billion for the first three quarters of 2006. Its stock briefly topped the $500-a-share mark. Most significant, Google in October acquired high-flying video site YouTube for $1.7 billion. Measurement services comScore Media Metrix and Nielsen//NetRatings plan to add YouTube to Google's overall rankings this year.

That "assures that Google will be number one in both worldwide and U.S. visitors," says Danny Sullivan, editor of the SearchEngineLand blog.

Even without YouTube, in November Google surpassed Yahoo for the first time as the second-most-visited site worldwide, comScore says.

Microsoft is the top site in comScore's worldwide rankings - fueled in part by downloads of Microsoft software updates. In the United States, comScore has Yahoo as the top site, with 130 million visitors, to 108 million for Google.

Yahoo has been the most visited Internet property in the U.S. for more than 10 years, thanks to its popular e-mail, instant messaging and directory applications. But it trails Google in revenue: Yahoo reported revenue of $4.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2006.

Google taking the No. 2 spot in worldwide traffic "is a big deal," Sullivan says. "Google's critics say the company is a one-trick pony, and is focused too much on just search. This just shows how powerful search is."

Only 10 percent of Yahoo's traffic comes from search, according to rival measurement firm Hitwise. At Google, meanwhile, 87 percent comes from search. Yahoo's top traffic generator is e-mail, at 33 percent.

Yahoo has struggled in the shadow of Google this year. Its revamped search advertising system was delayed until early this year. Its stock trades at around $26 a share, from more than $40 last January. And it has announced a restructuring to get back on track.

Earlier last year, Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney predicted Google would top Yahoo and Microsoft in traffic even without YouTube. "It's a matter of math," he says. "The Internet population is growing at 10 percent a year, and Google's audience is growing at 9 percent to 15 percent," compared with 6 percent to 12 percent for Yahoo, and 4 percent to 7 percent for Microsoft. He also says Google's stock will hit the $600-a-share mark by the end of 2007. "The rise in traffic shows that the new applications they've been adding are being widely accepted," he says.

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