$PAYS. Below is my reply to a comment received in Seeking Alpha. This may be helpful in defining the $PAYS investment context, as I see it.
Thank you for your comments. It is always very beneficial to consider different perspectives. The points raised are valid and relevant. Nonetheless, in my opinion they are of a “more temporary” nature (in absolute terms only death is permanent) and do not raise to the level where they detract from the investment thesis I endorse (described in my initial posting).
The thesis rests on “more permanent” elements that, if correct, should in due course result in a “normalized activity” (read: growing number of contributing programs, growing Plasma card loads) that drives “normalized financials” (read: absence of accounting revenue reversals), which in turn drive the stock to higher price levels.
During the investment horizon there will be unexpected events, some negative (like COVID, new accounting policies, government fiscal programs, etc.), some positive (like the increase in donation compensation rates, positive competitive windfall due to the Wirecard event). Some of these may be judged significant, for sure, but still do not raise to the level of impacting the fundamentals in the thesis.
Some unexpected negative events support pessimistic business narratives with major loss in the price of the stock (witness the 30%+ drop in the price on 3Q20 earnings announcement). Often, there is a “pile in” effect, where investors (and analysts) add gloom at will depressing the price further. It is on these times where the investor’s ability (read rational conviction) to see “normalized activity” is at a premium.
Thank you again, and thank you for your good wishes.
