Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[xblkbk]

Comments on China market:

“almost 180.4M people in China fit the profile of an HTG patient (~20% of the adult population), with ~5% of those patients demonstrating very high levels of TG above 500mg/dL (i.e. SHTG). With the CV disease the leading cause of death among the Chinese population, we believe the ceiling is substantially high for a TG-lowering therapy in China. Furthermore, without an approved omega-3 or other TG-specific lowering therapy for SHTG patients, regulatory approval for Vascepa in China could present a significant first-mover advantage for the EPA-only omega-3 drug, in our view. Additionally, Edding fits the bill as a proven, reliable partner for AMRN: with the company's already successful promotion of multiple products in China, Edding has the infrastructure in place to execute on a strong launch as well as messaging alignment with the objectives of Health China 2030, a public health initiative that stresses prevention and treatment of CV disease. Lastly, we note that ~36.1M statin-treated adult patients fit the REDUCE- IT therapeutic profile, i.e. TGs above 150mg/dL and either established CVD or T2DM and at least two additional risk factors for CVD. With all the looming potential entry of generic Vascepa in the U.S., we place China alongside the EU as significant drivers of Vascepa value in the medium-term. We look forward to additional details in the future around reimbursement and commercialization plans following initial regulatory feedback from the recent pivotal readout.”

From today’s Piper Sandler note

Target remains $19 with China not currently modeled