Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[frrol]

Have you scrutinized slide 17? Our random-selection trial had 33% of patients on placebo, 66% dosed. In the left-side chart, this is actually the same distribution for all "top interval" episodic memory improvers at week 14. In other words, no apparent effect between the two cohorts (as portrayed in this manner). On the right side chart, we then consider just the wtS1 sub. The distribution isn't much changed unfortunately, 74% vs 28%. The "positive impact" is actually slight: a lot of placebo patients also improved in episodic memory.

You can somewhat see this illustrated in slide 15. Note the long high tail for the placebo cohort and short tails for the two dosed cohorts. And for this slide we use the J-T test instead of ANOVAs, as there were 3 samples to compare. With ANOVA and doing 2 sample testing, our p-val may have been over .05. You can see how this is likely when you note the p-value for slide 18, where we do use ANOVA. That slide is just wtS1 and the p-value is barely under .05.

What this shows is that, for episodic memory, we have potential signal but it's not conclusive, and also wtS1 might have some effect but if so it's weak.

With slide 20, reaction time (attention metrics), signal is a little better, but not much. Nevertheless, is better than memory signal.

But who knows, the small effects vs placebo might strengthen with more than just 14 weeks of dosing. It will be important for the OLE study to show this. Let's see if 2-73 needs longer dosing duration than 14 weeks for full effect.