If you reason anything NWBO for a few minutes, it would be very clear that investing in NWBO in the next few weeks should be quite an easy and pleasant thing:
Investors should not be focused on the known unknowns: 1) whether warrants and how many will exercise and sell onto the market or not in the near future; 2) would the naked short wolfpack take advantage of such an anxiety to make thing worse, and I bet they will but there will also be buy pressure from who I don't know; and how the stock price would react on the above and beyond, will it increase or decline by how much? and 3) in the near future when exactly will top line data be released, and are there any other news which could also be released before the top line data or shortly thereafter?
In other words, the stock price may either increase or decrease with unknown intensity? Which nobody know for certain, and why anyone should exhaust own time and energy on that?
Instead, we should be focused on the knows: 1) fundamentally nothing has changed, if not better, because we have now known for sure that the whole EU is onboard with the company for its adapted SAP and endpoints; 2) despite that the share price has been halved in recent days from around $2.5 to today's $1.1 (with an equivalent market cap from about $2 billion to today's $1 billon); 3) tens or twenties of millions of warrants have exercised, sold and added to the float (now about 808 million shares outstanding), and it would be reasonable to believe that roughly the equal number of shares may have sold short by some warrant holders with their future warrants as hedge; 3) top line data will be released probably before 20 Nov, but it could happen any day before that; 4) it's most likely there may be other possible news around 20 Nov;
Most importantly 5) we now know almost for certain that the top line data will be positive -- at least the primary OS endpoint and/or a few other secondary endpoints if not all will be med with statistically significant p values, and 6) for GBM alone DCVax-L is at least worthy of $10 billion if not $20 billion if approved by the four RAs (equivalent to about $10 to $20 per share).
At the market close last Friday, NWBO traded at about $1.1 per share or about $1 billion market cap. How confident do you believe we will reach $2 billion mc ($2.2 per share), $3 billion mc ($3 per share), $4 billion mc ($4 per share), … $10 billion mc ($10 per share), and $20 billion mc ($20 per share) after top line data release within the next two or three weeks? How much will be the factor considering other indications? How much will DCVax as a platform really worth?
I don't know what you think, nor your strategy and tactics in the next few weeks in terms of buying or selling or holding nwbo stock?
But for me, it's quite simple: as long as the fundamental has not changed as it is laid out above, $1 per share (about $1 billion mc) is a strong buy. As a matter of fact, I have added shares recently in the range from $1.87 all the way down to $0.958.
Ladies and gentlemen, stop torturing yourselves, and please look at the forest not the trees!
[Despite I don't think warrant holders are dumb enough to exercise prematurely for several dimes of profit instead of dollars, the above reasoning still applies]
AI
