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NY Crude Oil Futures - Reaction High »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 24, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 3985 is immediately trading down about 34% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Immediately, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 4022, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in October is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market is still holding positive on the yearly level of our indicating models trading between overhead system resistance and underlying support. It remains in a bearish position on the quarter models warning it is not breaking out to the upside right now. The monthly is negative for now and the short-term weekly is positive. The market has dropped making a new low on the monthly level during September yet on the weekly level the market has continued to rally exceeding the previous week's high.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 4035 and support forming below at 3952. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 19th at 4190, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 7th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 4190 to 3957. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 19th reaching 4190 has exceeded the previous high of 4149 made back during the week of September 21st. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 3663. Additional support is to be found at 3613. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 3 months since the low established back in June.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 4378 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during August. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6565 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 1804 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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