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NY Crude Oil Futures - Pressing Higher »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 17, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 4112 is immediately trading down about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. This price action here in October is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Clearly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market is still holding positive on the yearly level of our indicating models trading between overhead system resistance and underlying support. It remains in a bearish position on the quarter models warning it is not breaking out to the upside right now. The monthly is negative for now and the short-term weekly is positive. The market has dropped making a new low on the monthly level during September yet on the weekly level the market has continued to rally exceeding the previous week's high.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 4053 and overhead resistance forming above at 4133. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 12th at 4157, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 7th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 4157 to 3904. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 12th reaching 4157 has exceeded the previous high of 4149 made back during the week of September 21st. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 3887. Additional support is to be found at 3935. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 3 months since the low established back in June.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 4378 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during August. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6565 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 1804 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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