My spreadsheet calculations are similar.
I'm pretty competent in using the arithmetic functions of a spreadsheet to visualize all of the potential financial metrics of my rather moderate AVXL position. But, try running the numbers yourself.
To begin, there is only one rather solid number to start with, the number of outstanding AVXL shares. As I have it, it's 60,191,000. But for broader safety, I've presumed the eventual outstanding (in trade) shares total to be 100,000,000. Nice, safe number.
Then, in different cells, enter the number of people that will be treated with blarcamesine each year. I limited myself to just the US. Find a candidate disease and look it up on the internet. Enter the number of annual cases.
Now, in adjacent columns, enter potential sales prices per day of blarcamesine doses. From those, calculate annual Anavex revenues. I always presume a year to be just 300 days. The missing 65 days can account for various sales costs; taxes, etc.
With all of that, at any assigned daily drug cost, from $1 to $10 per day, there will lots of zeros in the corporate annual revenues columns.
Then, divide those annual revenues by the number of outstanding shares (100 million). That gives a revenues per share datum. For example, if 5 million Americans with Alzheimer's get treated with blarcamesine, at a dollar a day, that's 5,000,000 patients x $1/day x 300 functioning days in the year = $1,500,000,000; $1.5 billion of corporate revenues.
If there are 100 million outstanding shares, that's $1,500,000,000 of revenues / 100,000,000 shares = $15/share.
Of course, the price of blarcamesine, at least at the start, will probably be several dollars a day.
Then, Parkinson's disease. One source says about a million Americans have the disease.
Then, consider the entire Western world. Triple or quadruple the numbers.
Finally, for great fun, punch the numbers when it is determined that virtually everyone over age 50 needs to take an Anavex pill every day, to prevent the onset of a variety of geriatric disease; to maintain a degree of healthful youthfulness in the last third of life.
And, none of this considers the possibility of any of the Anavex drugs successfully treating or preventing other, non-CNS diseases.
I won't share my actual calculations. Too big to be believed. In reality, time and events will tell.
