NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[longfellow95]

Every year you survive, you have a better chance of surviving a further two years (or indeed just 1 additional year), so it is not the way you have reckoned.

Have a look at Table 2 on this link:-

https://acsjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/cncr.27590

Chances of surviving an additional 2yrs:-

If you make it to 1yr, then chance of surviving additional 2yrs is 20.6%
If you make it to 2yrs, it is 38.1%
If you make it to 3yrs, it is 57.3%
If you make it to 4yrs, it is 64.2%

You can see from this trawl of US registries from 10-15 years ago, that if you made it to 3yrs you had a 57.3% chance of making it 5yrs, with a fairly wide confidence interval. 57.3% of 28.2% gives you 16.1%
But things have moved on a bit since then, and our trial population has slightly better prognosis than patients from a large database and we know there is a very good long tail, so I think entire ITT OS60 of 18-22% is reasonable, with treatment doing that bit better.

Still pondering my final treatment OS60 estimate, but it has to be somewhere in the 21-24% range, I think.

And the EF-14 control arm contemporaneous comparator was 5%.....