Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)

[Atinus]

Norpoth tells you explicitly he's been wrong in the past: "For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, when presidential primaries were introduced. The misses are 1960, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote." http://primarymodel.com/

2016 could be considered a miss too because he predicted Trump would win the popular vote as the basis for saying he would win the election. In 2020, he has revised the model to predict the Electoral College, which he has never done before.

Norpoth's reaction on Nov. 10, 2016: "I feel a little bit caught in a bind... This time it’s almost tragic for me to have to admit that I didn’t get that right,” he said, referring to the fact that Clinton in fact won the popular vote and his model predicted Trump would. https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/helmut-norpoth-stony-brook-professor-predicted-donald-trump-win-1.12600807

Not saying Trump won't win, but Norpoth's model is far from infallible. It's more of a guidepost that tells you where you are in the electoral cycle, and urges that if Republicans stick together with their guy, the odds of winning skyrocket.