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Corn (CBOT) (C) - Temp High »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 17, 2020

This market made a new high today after the past 10 trading days. The market opened lower and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 4090. Therefore, this market closed below the opening print while also closing down from the previous closing yet it was weak going into the close.

At the moment, we are trading above our uptrend technical projection which rests at 3929.

Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 3852. Initial support lies at 3939. This market has exceeded intraday 2 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below all three of those same points. Our next projected resistance number stands at 4046.

Additionally, our central point cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing warning that the upward momentum is subsiding. Given the fact that we have made a new high and this study just turned down today, caution is advised that this may prove to be a temporary high and a break of today's low of 4016 would tend to confirm that possibility. Furthermore, the short-term Stochastics have also signaled a possible crash is likely. The Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 4030 which is above today's low. This market is still trading above our normal trading envelope and does remain in a positive position still. During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator at 3882 settling at 4036 which alerted us to a further potential rally was likely going into the instant session.

The immediate Crash Mode support for this current session was 3942 which we have now closed back above suggesting the crash is subsiding. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 4030. Now since we closed back above this indicator in the current trading session, then holding above this indicator for the next session will imply the decline is subsiding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 3750 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 3942
Previous... 3882
Tomorrow... 4030

The historical perspective in the Corn (CBT) included a rally from 2005 moving into a major high for 2012, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2016 forming a declining trend of 4 years bottoming at 3146. Even so, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 01/01 from 2012, which tends to warn that the 2012 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2016 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. Even so, we have elected two short-term Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 01/01 from this 2016 reaction low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2016. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 3 years in the making.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Corn (CBT), this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 3982.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 12th at 4090, which was up 25 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 20th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 4090 to 3872. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 12th reaching 4090 has exceeded the previous high of 3550 made back during the week of July 6th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 25 weeks overall.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for three months. Since that low made in April, the market has rallied for 5 months. Impressively, however, we have made new highs exceeding 3940. Meanwhile, the past five months has witnessed a rally of 22% percent. A month-end closing below 3510 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 3826 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

The market is trading some 2.03% percent above the last high 3940 from which we did originally obtain four sell signals from that event established during January. Long-Term critical support was encountered on this move. From the January, this market declined into a low during April at 3090. Right now, the market has rallied from that low and is breaking out to the upside. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well.

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