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NY Crude Oil Futures - Turning Back UP »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 10, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 4060 is immediately trading down about 33% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. This price action here in October is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 4047 and overhead resistance forming above at 4075. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 24th at 4378, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 20th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1082% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of September 21st reaching 4149 failed to exceed the previous high of 4378 made back during the week of August 24th. That rally amounted to only two typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 3682. Resistance is to be found starting at 4223. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 3 months since the low established back in June.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 4378 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during August. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6565 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 1804 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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