NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[CogDiss 1188X]

To me this back and forth with the company and data lock feels like a slow play to get to 5 years from randomization. Maybe it is a coincidence that we will have 5 years for most if not all when they are unblinded.

Unfortunately, I’m not up on the details of clinical trial result presentation and interpretation as I should be, given the complexion of my investment portfolio, but my ill-informed take is that being a few months short of five years on a few patients shouldn’t really matter. I base this on the fact that the statistical calculations are essentially math, and the rules governing math don’t require integers and rounding down. If there is a valid reason that someone knows why 5 years is a magic number, in the sense of FDA approvals, I’m open to some remedial education.

The November timeframe seems to stand out as a possible reason for the most recent delays, given that SNO is a fixed date that was an obvious target this year (ASCO having passed due to the covid monkey wrenching of the interesting ASM) and NWBO’s extensions of the warrants to the self-same November. Given their previous guidance that it’s going to take a few weeks of statistical processing and a few weeks of corporate interpretation and agreement on presentation and messaging, November seems to be baked into the cake.

However, since the NWBO saga seems to have elements of being a simultaneous experiment on shareholder perceptions and, how shall we say, gentle art of nudging those perceptions, it is possible that we’re being primed for a surprise early release of TLD. A positive result released, let’s say before sunrise tomorrow before we’ve all had our first cup of joe, our eyes are bleary and our minds still benumbed by sleep, might inspire even the most tapped out of us to raise some more funds and buy into the coming frenzy.

It’s just a thought.

I’m still long and waiting for the final card to be dealt, whenever that might be.