I'm surprised no one has mentioned this one sentence at the end of the first paragraph of this morning's PR:
GENEVA and RADNOR, Pa., Sept. 30, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding AG (SIX: RLF,OTCQB: RLFTF) ("Relief" or the "Company") and NeuroRx, Inc. have established supply chain agreements and ordered sufficient drug substance (RLF-100TM) to prepare to treat 1 million patients with COVID-19, should the pandemic continue.
Should the pandemic continue.
Recently had to go to the Hospital ER, here in the north Houston area, Memorial Hermann is the name, with my wife that had gotten bitten by a neighbor's dog. While checking in to an empty ER (which normally has 400 people in it), my wife asked the nurse how busy they had been in relation to covid. The nurse told her they've been sending nurses home, "cutting them", because the hospital was so empty. There was literally no one else in the ER, while we were there, and that's a first. That's why it's been hard to enroll those last patients.
Another reason is, almost every hospital is doing some sort of a trial now. Lots of competition. Not trying to say that covid-19 isn't real, but I do think the media has blown it out of proportion in certain areas. Houston was recently supposedly one of the hardest hit cities, but yet this major hospital is empty. I think most of these numbers are not showing that these people are being treated at home or in nursing homes and are not in the icu.
As I've been saying all along, Relief is catering to a niche group. Dr. Javitt reiterated that today by saying the EUA application was only for the sickest of the sick, in the ICU, after all available treatment options have been exhausted. That's very few. In all likelihood, these numbers could continue decreasing over time, hence the last sentence about the pandemic continuing up above.
I still believe in this company, and Dr. Javitt has been very forthright at all steps, however as I've been saying, we all need to temper our enthusiasm a little bit, when it comes to the price per share jump everyone is anticipating and the timeline. Remember Ram has stated this company has the potential to bring in hundreds of millions a year. He didn't say billions, he said millions. Andy Harris stated in the 9/24 video, that this has the potential to save tens of thousands of lives. He didn't say hundreds of thousands or millions. And Dr. Javitt did not say the FDA will take 30 or 60 days, like some on here have said, he said he had heard that they try to respond in 30 to 60 days. Obviously with Remdesivir, we know they submitted on April 8th and were approved on May 1st. But I think RAM and Dr. Javitt have been very honest and subdued stating numbers and timeline and I appreciate that. Would much rather have that than a pumper.
My point to all this is, they've been giving us little clues all along, that timelines sometimes get extended and hinting that we need to temper our enthusiasm a smidgen, to keep our expectations closer to reality. The sell-off was obviously due to huge disappointment, because the sellers had too high of expectations to start with.
In summary, Dr. Javitt did mention the investors in the company and acknowledged
they should be rewarded for helping the drug get to where they were. I also appreciate that. Is this a 20 bagger? Maybe, in a few steps, but most likely not on EUA day at the first step. Be patient, it'll come, but if you can't wait, then sell. And when it comes, it will come in steps. EUA. Nasdaq uplist. Full approval. Large orders by Governments. Inhaler. Approval for other illnesses. All at different times. And lastly, keep in mind this pandemic could ease on it's own. Hopefully we get through these steps quickly and can be the ones that eradicate it.
