Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Kycc]

This is my first post. I have read the board since 2 years ago and invested as a long and lost a lot like most of you. A couple of days ago. I read a news from the country where Hikma EPA API is located. I sent the info to IR and she said the info was useful. Now to share with you.

The news says the API currently has a production capacity of 45 ton/year. HiKama has ordered in 12/2019 and added up to 45 tons in this early September. The API plans to upgrade their facility to produce 350 ton/year starting in August 2021. 2 of 3 US generics are using the same API (I guess the other one is Teva).

Below is what I calculate the impact of income of Amarin for 2020 and 2021. Please just read the info as a reference since media news might not be 100% accurate and my calculation is based on assumption.

45 tons = 31,250 bottles per month
(45 * 1000kg * 1000g / 120 softgels / 12 months)

350 tons = 243,000 bottles per month
(350 * 1000kg * 1000g / 120 softgels / 12 months)

Hikma will launch in November. Assuming they will have 375,000 (31,250 * 12) bottles then, assuming $130 income per bottle, Hikma will steal around $40-50 million of sale from Amarin in Q4 2020.

350 ton production won’t happen till August 2021. The impact for 2021 is 31,250 * 7 + 243,000 * 5 = 1,433,750, bottles. Assuming the average script for 2021 is 100,000/week, then total 5,200,000 bottles will be sold. Hikma will probably steal $190-200 million of US sale from Amarin in 2021.