- Long Term: 10TWh global annual battery production needed for transition to sustainable transport, additional 10TWh/y for energy storage
- Current Tech: 135 Giga Nevada's, $2T investment, 2.8M people needed for this goal => drastic improvement in efficiency needed
- Plan to halve the cost per kWh (!)
- not dependent on a single innovation => no single point of failure
?
- Tabless cell => improved charge rate vs. cell diameter curve
- 5x shorter electrical path
- 20% higher power density due to tabless
- 16% higher range from form factor alone
- 14% $/kWh reduction from form factor+tabless?
- 4680 cell
- Kato Road pilot plant has 10GWh design capacity, to be reached in about a year
- Production plants to be ~20GWh/y
- Dry electrode process
- 10x footprint reduction
- 10x energy reduction
- "close to working" => does work, currrently poor yield?
- 20GWh/y per line, 7x increase per line
- "Tesla is aiming to be the best at manufacturing of any company on earth", manufacturing as long term competitive advantage
- Formation 25% of CAPEX
- 86% CAPEX reduction
- 75% footprint reduction?
- 10x production density increase *across plant*
- 75% CAPEX reduction *across plant*
- Tesla goals:
- 200Gwh/y in 2022, 100GWh internal
- 3TWh/y in 2030?
- Formation+dry electrode: 18% $/kWh reduction
- Raw Silicon anode
- Ion polymer coating, integrate with binder
- design for expansion, don't fight it?
- 20% range increase
- 5% $/kWh reduction?
- Zero Cobalt
- 15% $/kWh reduction on cathode level?
- 3 battery cathode tiers:
- LFP, NMx (33% Manganese, 66% Nickel), Nickel, depending on application?
- Cathode production *very* complicated, in part due to organic process/supply chain growth => potential
- metallic Nickel, no sulfate
- 66% less CAPEX
- 76% less process cost
- no wastewater
- simpler recycling
- 80% less miles travelled
- 12% $/kWh reduction?
- 33% reduction in lithium cost
- Tesla to use Lithium clays in Nevada (rights secured by Tesla), acid free saline extraction
- TWh scale supply secured
- (No Lithium coup in Bolivia?! I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!)?
- 100% cell recycling *today* by third parties, in house recycling starting to ramp up next quarter at Giga Nevada
- Front and rear of the car single-piece cast, connected by a structural battery pack
- no modules
- non cell portion of pack "has negative mass" because of mass savings in other parts of the vehicle
- pack is a "honeycomb stucture between face sheets" => exremely high stiffness, higher than normal car
- better volumetric efficiency => cells more in the center of the vehicle => less chance of cell puncture during side impact
- 10% mass reduction (of pack or vehicle?)
- 14% range improvement opportunity
- much simpler vehicle production?
- Grand Total (POTENTIAL, not currently realized):
- 54% range increase
- 56% less $/kWh
- 69% less CAPEX per GWh
- start seeing benefits in 12-18 months
- full potential probably achieved in about 3 years?
- Long term: 20M car sales per year
- 3 years from compelling $25k car *at a profit*
- PLAID:
- <2 sec 0-60, <9 sec quarter mile, >1100hp
- "best track time of any production car ever"
- preoders open now, available end of 2021
- 520+mi range, 200mph
- 140k?
- No mention of energy density on cell or pack level, only range increase potential, likely to keep OEMs guessing as to where the range improvements come from exactly (eg cell vs pack level)
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