NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Gary, while I agree with you that it is very likely that the DCVax-L trial is headed for success, I very much doubt that we will have 70-90 patients surviving 5(+) years.

The November 2018 SNO update stated that of the 331 patients, 28.2% or 93 will become post 36 months survivors and that estimate was based on data collected when most of the 93 had already achieved that goal and a few survivors were only a few months away from passing the 36 months timeline.

This suggests to me that the SNO's estimated number of post 36 months survivors (93), was very close to reality.

Now, of the 93 post 36 months survivors, the survival of 90, 80, or 70 patients past 5 years would translate to a survival rate of 96.8%, 86%, and 75.3%.

That is far higher than the survival rate that can be deduced from the 2018 SNO update that estimated 50 patients to be alive at 58.4(+) months on trial. That 50 of the 93 patients alive at 36 months are going to reach 58.4 months implies a 54% survival rate between 36 and 58.4 months. That is a far lower survival rate than the 75.3% to 96.8% cited in the previous paragraph.

My estimate is much closer to the one presented at the 2018 SNO update.
However, the 2018 update most likely could not yet take into account the superior survival capabilities of the last 108 patients enrolled (about 1/3 of the trial). I therefore believe we will end up with about 55-60 patients living past 58.4 months or 60 months and I am guessing that about 90% of those patients will be in the Treatment arm.

If that turns out to be correct we will still have a winner despite the fact that the 5 year survival numbers turned out to be well below 70-90.