Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Will Lar]

Jasbg - I'm always in the BO camp. If I were CEO, I would have already sold the company at $30-$35 in 2019! But I have to admit that BO is not on Amarin's agenda after reading its 9/3 investor presentation. It's very clear the company sticks to its GIA plans in both US and EU.

https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/d6b5bb48-f4f6-4d84-b565-37abd27d3f6a

The number I like in the presentation is its cash balance - they seem to manage spending well. The number I don't like is the sales growth but COVID could the culprit. What I am skeptical (so are many of you and WS) is their claim of "If VASCEPA goes generic in US, sales of VASCEPA by Amarin are likely to continue at meaningful levels for a substantial period of time." This is a supply game, which means third parties (suppliers) have a heavy hand here. Amarin doesn't have contracts with all pure EPA suppliers. We need to see how much non-Amarin API out there and how fast these suppliers can meet API requirements.

I'm a believer that all companies are for sales if the price is right. Genentech was so vocal and capable of being independent but it was still taken by Roche. I still think Amarin is not built to GIA (no pipeline is a big "for sale" sign). However after ReduceIt, it changed its strategy and hence the last secondary offering. It changed its EU strategy after the district court ruling. Likely the company has pretty high expectation on valuation which no buyer agreed on. Amarin has to show that it's worth it through sales. Next 12 months are critical for the company. WS will be watching closely its spending, sales growth vs. generic's growth, and its EU buildup. But at $4/sh, the company is an attractive asset. So there could be other opportunistic buyers, uninvited.

Regardless, the way the company is treating retail shareholders is quite disgraceful. It gave a presentation to investors right after the appeal ruling. But retail only got a PR. Not cool!