So Les recently stated TLD "in the next couple of weeks." If "couple" means 3 weeks, that is by September 31, which is the deadline they have publicly set for themselves for TLD. That is plausible. Working backwards from LP's stated timeline, if they announce TLD the last week of September, that means they are meeting with their SAB and discussing options for presenting TLD this week (and the following 2 weeks). They also would have sent unblinded data to the statistician 2-3 weeks ago, which means they could easily have had actual TLD (maybe primary outcomes only) to send in to SNO for the required September 1 data update deadline (and possibly they had primary TLD outcomes to help them decide whether to close the recent Flaskworks deal which was announced coincidentally on....September 1). Regarding the latter, LP does not seem like someone who would waste millions of dollars on a purchase to better manufacture a drug with no chance of approval. Total speculation, but if the above is true, maybe the sudden large increase in volume and in stock price around September 1 is because word has gotten out (e.g., SNO abstracts are reviewed by a scientific committee...just saying...). The main thing arguing against this scenario is that the company appears not to have officially announced FINAL data lock (but if you read the past PR's, there is one where they say quite clearly that the primary dataset has been locked, but they still have to add some late data on genetic markers, etc). Maybe in their minds that was the TLD announcement.
