ETFs, Leveraged ETFs, Sector Funds

[No-Quarter]

A most important portion of this mornings pre-market update -

Tuesday’s losses came despite a long-awaited rebound in LNG export demand as flows to Sabine Pass came back online. Most likely, the selling pressure was driven by a combination of weakness in the oil sector, production climbing back to near 90 BCF, the onset of the Fall shoulder season, and a large overvaluation following the 50% rally in August. With the sell-off, this overvaluation was cut by more than a third, dipping to +11%, as shown in the Figure to the right. As I have discussed extensively over the past two weeks, a substantial pullback was overdue and healthly for the sector. I honestly didn’t think that we would get it in a single chunk, but the result is the same. With LNG exports rebounding and production still likely to fall for the remainder of the year, I am not expecting natural gas to retreat all the way to its Fair Price of $2.15/MMBTU. Rather, I see a bottom at or above $2.25/MMBTU. The sooner that flows return to Cameron, the sooner this bottom will likely be put in. I continue to hold onto modest short natural gas positions via short UNG and short BOIL. I will plan to begin covering these on a move under $2.35/MMBTU and will be out entirely by $2.25/MMBTU, at which point I will probably also go long again. My winter 2020 upside price target remains at $4.00/MMBTU.