Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Hamoa]

Not exactly. I don't see the need for any agreement of any kind with the generics. They'll do whatever they do based on what will make them the most money. And keep in mind that it's not lost on any of the parties that what is at stake here is the market for a drug that will potentially be the best-selling of all time, so A LOT of careful thinking will be going into everyone's next moves. This will likely be the most important business decision anyone involved will ever make, and they know it.

Despite the legal setbacks, Amarin is still the key player here. The generics need Amarin to do its part if they're going to get what they want, and that part is to build the US market using their exclusive right to market Vascepa for the CV indication. If the generics "poke the bear" too hard by rushing into the market, they risk losing this monumental opportunity to make a lot of money for many years. So everyone involved, in my view, will be guided by purely economic realities, and that will effectively result in the same actions that a formal settlement would accomplish.

As a check on the overall investment thesis here, and setting aside the recent US litigation drama, I would just ask yourself what you think the global market for icosapent ethyl will be in 5 years. Then calculate what you think Amarin's share of that market will be. Then consider today's valuation of Amarin.