Friday, September 04, 2020 8:48:56 AM
Recently fellow poster "artfulife" pasted an exhaustive interview going into great detail about Menlo's current state of affairs. This morning I sent it to a long time friend. He is a retired stock broker whose primary focus was that of operating as a stock wholesaler. He'd travel all over the world presenting a case for brokerages to consider stocks he represented. The brokerages, in turn, would then urge their client list to take positions---or not as the case might be.
He has a position in MNLO and I believe he will be following my lead today as I told him I'll be a buyer today if shares drop back to the $1.35 range, something I'm expecting.
These are difficult times for most of us. Political differences, stock market uncertainty, the pandemic---all are, indeed, challenging.
At the end of the email to my friend (mentioned above) I noted that the interviewer's personal take has it that MNLO shares will be fetching upwards of $21/share. Following, then, is the actual interview. I post it now as I hope others will be applying a watchful eye, should the stock shares drop as I'm seeing as a strong possibility. Of course, everyone here must and will decide for him/herself how to proceed with investments.
I hope some find this useful as I know a number of us were earlier unable to access the interview due to a transmission issue.
Here, then, is the majority of the entire piece fully intact save for a little not especially relevant as it involves public statements dating back to early June of this year.
I hope you all enjoy what you're reading!
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MNLO UPDATE 28 AUG 2020 – Talk with Menlo's CEO, CFO, CCO
27 Aug 2020 call with Menlo (NASDAQ: MNLO)'s CEO (David Domzalski), CFO (Andrew Saik), CCO (Matt Wiley)
Dear All
Yesterday I had a one hour call with Menlo Therapeutics' CEO, CFO, CCO. The CEO said they appreciate my communications, insights, recommendations that I've been sending over the course of the past year (directly to management, since some of us investors consider Menlo's IR (commissioned to LifeSci) as non-existent.
Dave is a breath of fresh air compared to many biotech CEOs I've dealt with. Dave has it all: management skills, sales blood, soft skills, subject matter expertise, big mind. Andrew and Matt are also best-in-class
We covered a lot of areas. I had 6 pages of questions. Here's a summary of my impressions. To be clear, I did not receive any insider information, and this is not an investment advice.
My background is not biotech (it's computer science, management, philosophy, music, law), but have been through thick and thin in biotech as an investor and seen first hand, and battled first hand, with the worst of unethical Wall Street, and kicked some ass in the process (e.g., in collaboration with FINRA).
Current headcount is 100. It was 150 post merger. Some cuts due to Covid (not salesforce) mainly in overseas operations (future of small footprint unknown -- new legislation reduced tax benefit). They've migrated from an internal development model to partnerships/outsourcing so can dial-up/down easily (development, clinical trials). Salesforce consists of 65 people -- 51 reps, 6 managers, head of sales, and admin / marketing / managed care. The organization is lean (can probably be leaner).
Cowan issued a nice note (see below) after the latest prescription data titled "Recent Amzeeq Rx Trends Are Gaining Nice Momentum And Are Cause For Optimism". And a price target of $10/share. Current price: $1.43 !!
CEO said they've seen a meaningful inflection in recent week and they're pleased with the progress [although it could have been a lot better if it wasn't for Covid-19].
The company receives weekly IMS data, as well as historical claims data for the entire dermatology space which helps them target with strategic planning, knowing location of patients, predictive modeling, etc.
Revenue per script: it was anticipated that in the first couple of quarters the company would absorb a lot of the script costs. Coverage is increasing, the third and last PBM should be on board in Q4. Revenue per script should increase as coverage increases. In steady state it’ll be a lot higher than last quarter's average. Net price per plan for payer is $200 to $400.
I asked Matt about the post-Covid-outbreak market “healing”. He said it’s going in the right direction. August should seasonally be a strong month. While scripts have grown, the bounce is not as much as it would have been without Covid19 -- but market is coming back in a reasonable way.
Reverse Stock Split: They had 90% shareholder approval and have a year to do it -- and think about it like I do -- that it should be done at a strategic time for maximum benefit. I've changed my mind about this topic in the last weeks -- I used the Arena model, but Arena hadn't just gone through a bloody merger before their reverse split. They're absolutely not under any pressure to do it (they are not desperate or need to do it). It will happen at the right time.Why max RSS ratio 7 and not 10? One of their main goals for the RSS is to get the share price to a level where some major funds can buy the shares. Some of those funds have a $7 min. Some even have a $10 min. If the conversion is too high, it reduces the size of the float too much and that reduces liquidity (my idea: though a fund can bid up the price to get in). The optimum float size is 30 to 40 mil shares.
Capital Raise: CEO alluded that they're not looking to do a capital raise anytime soon. CFO said they have enough cash till end of 2021. And depending on Covid-19 effect, if sales are good, they may never need to do another raise.
Competition: They monitor competition closely and consider it in their planning. They’re seeing what they saw in market research as well – that topical minocycline is very unique and therefore very disruptive (good). They monitor competition. If competition comes in, it creates “noise” in the market (e.g. acne or rosacea), and noise is considered good in the branded market (helps boost demand). Amzeeq has a very good position in the market irrespective of any newcomers.
DTC: DTC makes sense 6 to 9 month after launch so doctors have enough experience with the drug as new patients are coming to them. Covid changed that timeline. They’re turning on various DTC channels in this and next quarter. Search trends on Amzeeq is not a reliable metric because most new patients don’t know about the drug. So DTC terms help patient land on pages that help educate them about Amzeeq, e.g. acne treatment…
Name Change: The sites of Foamix and Menlo are not fully integrated -- hard to interpret but my sense is they're looking at name change. It’s not that expensive. They’re aware of the baggage after the acquisition. They think about it. Of course they couldn’t tell me if they will or not but I think it makes sense that they do it – and am guessing that they will. And I guess they will do it soon (as postlude to the merger). The CFO has been engaged in name changes before with bigger companies. For a smaller company like us it’s a lot easier.
Options: Options market makers do not consult with the company – and the company is suppose to not be involved in that. So they don’t know. I assume there will be options once we get through this transition.
Cash: Core of expenses in Q2 was 30.5M which was a big decrease. The huge burn in Q2 was related to working capital. At end of Q1 there was a huge accrued liability related to trials. We should not see any more quarterly burn rates like last quarter. They have cash till end of next year. If they hit their revenue targets we may never do another raise. Covid makes it hard to predict.
Cost savings: CEO said he sees it the same was as I that there’s always room for belt tightening (best and most profitable companies still do that). Of course you need to spend money when you need to, but he assured me that they’re mindful of operating efficiently, and running a lean organization, with focus on sales activity and launch. They're selective in their pipeline activity (good; I'm happy they don't start P3 for a while).
Board: We talked about the board of directors, my experience with Lazy-Boy(and Girl) board members in other biotechs. Also, executive management seems top heavy for the small pipeline. Encouraged CEO to be disruptive -- the Board needs him -- he's the boss and should call the shots, and cut, even at the very top. I'm totally for rightsizing, including the board.
Open market buys: CEO will convey message that we want to see Board members buy in open market. He said he likes the idea and is looking into it. Of course he's restricted by MNPI (material nonpublic info) constraints.
Stock action: They're not aware of any institution selling out -- they've asked about the stock action and feedback was it's mainly retail selling -- and probably related to automatic transaction (Stop Loss Orders) [where a market participant who sees a SL-order manipulates the price down to make the shareholder lose the shares at that manipulated low price -- a practice that can be unlawful -- in fact, I'm planning to make a report to my FINRA contacts to investigate it].
Institutions: They've had discussions with large institutional investors, and the feedback is supportive. Institutions have told them, continue to execute and it will work out. Those institutions know what they're talking about
Roadshow: We didn't specifically talk about that but I guess that there may be a road show to present the company to more institutions. Again, purely my guess: I think they will do a name change -- a reverse split -- launch in mid-Sep as they've said before -- and then it makes sense to get out there and promote the new company
Trust: I shared my experience in this field: Don't trust anybody on Wall Street -- and I know this from very high levels, that surprise is their enemy, and everything you say you will do and won't do can be used against you. So confidentiality is key. And of course, under-promise, over-deliver. And integrity and truthfulness is most important (which they have). Wall Street, as dishonest as it is, punishes management it cannot trust. Also it's documented that some big pharmas which want to buy a small company have engaged in manipulating the stock down. I am happy Dave grasps all these.
Partnership: Cutia partnership: how did they find you? Cutia came to us via their parent organization. They found us. That's awesome -- Dave was only interested if there was a good up front payment. Forget these deals with promises for later. Cash is king now (my words). Very low risk transaction. Small market. Nice up front payment. They will commercialize in China etc. in the future.
EU, CH: They have had and continue to have discussions. The deal just has to make sense. They won't go alone (of course). Main focus in US. But license partner in Ex-US makes sense.
Alliance Management: Is part of the legal group. Not a dedicated person. Makes sense. They are small co, and wear many hats.
Fair Value: What price would you consider for a buyout? This triggered an interesting discussion with Andrew talking about his model for calculating fair value based on peak revenue expectation, but of course, they wouldn't give me a number. But I did some calculations myself -- if you take a couple of drugs at a couple of hundred million peak sale each, you get something like $21 / share which makes analyst estimates conservative.
Buyout: They're open to consider any compelling offer. They're not out shopping the company. They're focused on building the company. I have a sense that a buyer will step up with a compelling offer. I bluntly asked if there's been any interest. That put them into a limbo and a laughing session ensued (we joked around). Of course I knew they couldn't answer. One commented that they're usually asked that in face-to-face meetings. I said I can read minds even on the phone
-- and the CEO remarked that he likes my style
Leo Pharma: Rumor is they may be a buyer. My sense is that Leo has a lot on their hand and I don't think they're not The one (just my guess). They have a good relationship.
Gave them some feedback on some things, e.g., company presentation, e.g. dominance of while old men with beard that's not our patient space ... anyway I think / hope they will revamp company's IR / PR... and other topics.
IR: We discussed IR at length. They're aware of the concerns and looking at it... I think dedication is very important -- even if it's an internal person who is 30% dedicated to it. Current model with LifeSci seems very expensive and ineffective. Zeno works project based.
Overall, I sensed a lot of confidence in them.
COWAN'S NOTE
Menlo Therapeutics (NASDAQ: MNLO)
Outperform
Price Target: $10.00
Recent Amzeeq Rx Trends Are Gaining Nice Momentum And Are Cause For Optimism
The Cowen Insight
The Amzeeq launch was solid up until the pandemic-driven office closures. However, recent Rx trends show a nice recovery/inflection, and with the broadening payor coverage, it does appear that Amzeeq is back on track. With Amzeeq setting a nice foundation, Zilxi for rosacea (Q4 launch) should further leverage. We continue to believe combined Amzeeq/Zilxi sales could eventually exceed $500MM+.
Although the pandemic has had an obvious impact on what was, by any objective measure, a solid initial Amzeeq launch, we believe management now has this critical franchise back on track. Notably, Amzeeq prescriptions are inflecting, with the most recent weekly figures (via both IQVIA and Symphony) showing levels that exceed the pre-pandemic highs, and nicely ahead of our expectations.For perspective, utilizing the most recent weekly total Rx figures and a normalized pricing of roughly $200-250 per Rx would suggest an annualized run-rate of $30-35MM, which is an encouraging recovery post the most onerous part of the pandemic. And with most target physician practices now open (90%+), we believe this Amzeeq momentum should continue, and will soon be leveraged by the Zilxi Q4 launch.
Amzeeq Prescription Trajectory
Recall, Amzeeq launched in January, and despite the pandemic setback, management has already secured roughly 65% commercial lives and should reach 80% by Q4. We believe this underscores Menlo's pragmatic pricing strategy for Amzeeq that should allow for broad coverage to capture of meaningful volumes while still maintaining a healthy $200-250 prescription value (note, management continues to indicate that value per Rx should trend in the $200-400 range although we are using the lower end for conservatism). Our conversations with other dermatology industry participants indicate that they believe this volume-based pricing strategy that will allow for broad coverage makes complete sense given the size of the potential market, and should allow for constructive payor negotiations for Zilxi. And lastly, it does appear that the number of unique prescribers has continued to grow despite the pandemic (to 4,200), another very positive metric this early in its launch.
MNLO UPDATE 26 AUG 2020 --Biotech Investing
An investor wrote me:
"I understand and love the product, just that for bio investments I’m fairly new so I hope to hear more from you."
I happen to have a lot of biotech investment and investment research experience. But I am not a financial analyst or banker etc., so everyrthing I tell you are my opinions, they're not financial professional opinions, and are not investment advice.
Biotech companies are in several key categories from an investment perspective. MNLO is in a special situation that's not glamorous and glittery predsently but I expect it will make a lot of money for me.
Soon it will have multiple products in the market and in that sense it's derisked. It's not doing major risky trials. On P3 coming up which I view as low risk due to the strong P2 data. But focus here is revenue and partnerships or buyout. Not many sellers, and big buyers work with market makers who don't want to run the bid up. So some park the stock and manipulate it. A lot of shares will change hands from retail to institutions and based on my experience this often happens at the lowest possible price. Retail gets taken out at minimum price because it's easy to manipulate emotions of retail. You set up the stock to look like it's doom and gloom, and send some people to trash talk the stock on message boards, and eventually you get a lot of shares sold at rock bottom price.
So I believe that's where we're at. It's a contained, controlled quiet before the storm. I expect a partnership or buyout news, and increasing sales number to change this picture radically.
Just my opinions.
Réza Ganjavi
MNLO UPDATE 25 AUG 2020 --Commentary
Why is the Reverse Stock Split taking time? I speculate:
Imagine if you had a big news item pending: an anticipated EU or RoW partnership for example, and a launch in 3 weeks, or other things. Would you do the Reverse Stock Split now or combine it with one or more or all these events. What if you also wanted to change the company name and stock symbol. Same applies. So I think there's a reason RSS is not announced yet.
~~~
I scanned a message board. Some very intelligent things posted (all are opinions of their authors and not an investment advice):
My brother has been using Amzeeq for several weeks now. Dermatologist with decades of experience recommended it. He is very pleased with the results, says he now has smooth skin but still a few red dots, but overall very happy. I just saw him and he looks good. Long and Strong.
“Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised.” Warren Buffet. That's Menlo.
Waiting game for this. putting away negative emotions and bit by bit accumulation of cheap shares. 20Q4 is around the corner.
Does this company have a marketing staff? A communications staff? An Investor Relations staff? How can any management team operating in the year 2020 be so limited in communications strategies? I feel like if they hired a good Communications VP the company and stock would be jump started. [Another person: They haven't responded to my questions.] [I also think Menlo's Investor Relations is weak].
Investors should consider Almirall said it estimated peak Seysara sales at between $150MM & $200MM/year just in the United States. We noted MNLO's AMZEEQ was, more or less, trending to match Seysara's launch in Q12019 before COVID-19. If Almirall (who also sells Aczone) believes Seysara peak sales are $150MM to $200MM just in the US (and Almirall is, without a doubt, an expert in acne) & most believe AMZEEQ is more or less comparable to Seysara then it appears reasonable to conclude peak AMZEEQ sales (worldwide) could also be north of $200MM/year. If, again if, new therapies like AMZEEQ are worth 2 to 5 times estimated peak sales and if, again if, AMZEEQ peak sales are roughly $200MM then it is additional confirmation that MNLO with an enterprise valuation of less than $200MM at $1.60/share is materially undervalued. Our analysis also concludes MNLO management must consider a sale if doing so maximizes shareholder value versus going it alone.
Anyone that post bearish on this board dont even know anything about this company. If there are facts being presented on why to be bearish then I prefer to see that. Here are some facts about this company that Y’all should know: - 1 product approved and being market since 1qt 2020 - 2nd product approved and will be market on 4th qt of 2020 - 3rd product finish phase 2 with top line results - they got over 100 million on cash - institution increase position since 1qt
Company is very undervalued and will soon see the price appreciate by time.
It is quite unfortunate that Amzeeq launch coincided with the Covid19. the entire country and world literally shut down. They said doctor inpatient visits dropped to 23/week for dermatologist from 160!! In July however the trend has started to reverse and hopefully picking back up now. Zilski will launch Q4!! Both are projected in the 200-400M range each peak sales!!! With yet another product going into Ph3!! All of this points to a fabolous buying opportunity here!!!
Catalyst in October to November 1. Launch of zilxi 2. News of initial insurance coverage of zilxi 3. Completion of 3rd payer contract for amzeeq which would give them a better gross to net 4. Earnings 5. Vaccine news from morsel and pfizer
Have 32 stocks on my ThinkorSwim streaming watch list. Almost all of them are small biotechs. 29 of those stocks are down today even though the indexes are up. MNLO is down about 2.5% while many of the others are down between 4% and 9%. So this seems to be more of a category hit rather than this particular stock. If by the end of the year MNLO is $5, it won't have mattered today if it was $1.55 or $1.80.
Once a product is approved it can take many months to create a marketing program, packaging, contacting and educating physicians and having enough out on the market to get sufficient testimonials. That's why it is not unusual and even normal for stocks like this to be in a downturn while these things happen. Even more so with a pandemic going on. But if the company has a good product in a good market, very suddenly this situation can turn around and when the gains come they can be very fast an AMAZINGLY HUGE.
Holding my shares. Products are real. At some point this should move to $5. Might be six months--but, returns to good to pass up.
MNLO UPDATE 19 AUG 2020 --Next Steps
Over 50% of Menlo (MNLO) shares are now owned by institutions.
What's next for MNLO? In my opinion (not an investment advice):
1) Reverse stock split any day at 1 for 7 ratio. Might be combined with company name, stock symbol change.
2) Partnership or buyout:
- European / RoW partnership
- EMEA, Swissmedic filing
- Both above items might not happen if in buyout talks, which also explains the stock weakness since we know potential aqcuirers sometimes manipulate the stock (it's documented to have happened to other companies).
3) Launch of new drug Zilxi in less than a month; same sales force; mostly same target doctors; low overhead; increased revenue. Insurance coverage for Zilxi already in place and to increase.
4) Excellent reviews about Amzeeq. Increased sales trend should continue.
5) With RSS and increasing sales and new launch institutions will want to increase their ownership.
Lawsuit settlement approved by court a few days ago. Case closed.
I see bright future for MNLO lest macro risks.
Huwan hasn't had a Corona case for weeks. Let's hope that translates to US & RoW.
Best Regards
Reza
MNLO UPDATE 13 AUG 2020 -- Email to management
Gents
Arena's was a very successful reverse split. They did it immediately after shareholder approval. Stock has over tripled since then.
I don't know why you didn't go for 1-for-10 ratio. I trust Andrew's financial acumen but seem the higher the price the better.
Perhaps you're combining it with a name change etc. - or hopefully a EU filing and/or partnership (or RoW). The stock is very easy to manipulate, including by your friends (our underwriters).
Reminder: play your cards very close to your chest. In Persian they say "the wall has mice and mice has ears". And that info is used against the stock. And reiterate this top secrecy message to your staff -- it has to be a part of the company culture -- people tend to forget that.
Also, reduce your exposure to RF-EMF (wifi, cell, etc. -- go wired internet). It damages the DNA.
More power to you.
Reza
MNLO UPDATE 6 AUG 2020-- Key Takeaways & Commentary: Menlo (MNLO) Conference Call 6 Aug 2020 – by Reza Ganjavi
Completed merger. Now Menlo/Foamix is a US based company. Signed partnership for China+. 2 products approved by FDA in < 9 months.
Management is laser focused on shareholder value. They have a solid plan. [I like and trust them – they’re one of the best biotech management teams I’ve ever known. CEO, CCO, CFO are all top notch.]
1 full hour. Many analysts called in. Several analysts congratulated Menlo on the progress.
AMZEEQ
Amzeeq – Covid19 hurt the market as expected. 90% of dermatology offices are open. Despite limited openings 75% of the reps’ meeting with doctors were face to face (now even higher %). Sample velocity was slow in April and May due to shutdowns but has been recovering in recent weeks. 22169 TRx in Q2. 7.3% growth since Q1 despite Covid blues.
Last week we distributed more samples to offices than any week we have since launch – it was an astonishing number (same level as initial stocking of physician offices in January). Throughput is increasing (samples moving out of the doctor offices). More new offices opening up. More unique weekly prescribers. Market is healing in a very positive direction.
In recent weeks we’ve see very strong recovery in TRx, up 85% from March. Unique prescribers continue to grow -- 4200 new doctors in Q2.
60 speaker programs in Q2 educating over 600 doctors [great!].
Insurance: 63% of commercial lives covered. Negotiation with one PBM ongoing. By Q4, 80% of commercial lives should be covered. $200-$400/scrip.
Week of July 24, we have over 2400 prescriptions. Seeing the recovery we expected. NRx dropped 30% from March to April because of Covid19. The market has not recovered back to February level yet (due to Covid19). The market is healing nicely, but hasn’t completely. We expect it to come back. Patients haven’t gone away. They still need Ameeq. Throughput is healing across the country.
Positive patient testimonials [and online]. Patients are switching to Amzeeq nicely. We’re creating our own lane in acne space. Reality of launch is matching the market research that was done prior to it.
We’re seeing nice reopenings in this space and recent scrip numbers which are just about the pre-Covid-level, and nice weekly increases [fingers crossed the trend continues].
ZILXI
Zilxi for inflammatory lesions of rosacea in adults – first approved minocycline for rosacea – should receive broad market acceptance – launching Q4 – excellent data from trials on over 1500 people, and market research show that patients really like the clean safety profile / tolerability of Zilxi vs. other treatments that irritate them (high discontinuation rate).
Zilxi will be launched mid-September! Salesforce getting ready. High overlap with Acne market (87% - need to reach out to 500 more doctors – existing reps can do]. No need to hire more sales reps. 98% of doctors surveyed intend to prescribe Zilxi! Huge unmet need. Efficacy, clean profile, long-term impact.
Insurance coverage negotiation ongoing – same path as Amzeeq which was effective. [expected 80+% of commercial lives to be covered – at $200 to $400/scrip].
Market is ready. High unmet need. Even more ready because masks exacerbate rosacea symptoms, and acne patients too.
105
FCD105 positive P2 data (over 470 patients). Best in class potential. Q4 meeting with FDA / and to make plans for P3 (to start 2021H1).
FINANCES
Cash balance over $100 million as of 30 June 2020. No need to raise funds till end of 2021. [with sales traction, partnership deals, credit availability, there’s a chance the company will never dilute again].
Extended credit agreement for 6 months due to Covid. [RG’S COMMENTS:]
I believe this refers to access to non-dilutive credit financing they could obtain once sales reach certain threshold – this is a good thing. Reminds me of AVNR which used debt financing instead of diluting while it was in similar price range at MNLO ($2 range) and had launched Nuedexta – it was bought by Otsuka for $3.5B ($17/share) after it traded for a long time in the $2 share, manipulated by Martin Shkreli, etc. (off topic drama).
When in the 2’s the company was worth around $400M – it did a very good job of self-launching Nuedexta – and did all the things Menlo is also doing (speaker series etc.), and it was bought got $3.5 billion. In MNLO terms that’s around $22 / share. Avanir’s job was harder than Menlo, since Pseudobulbar Affect market was totally raw and AVNR had to develop it from scratch. Acne and Rosacea are ripe markets. Menlo should do even better than Avanir and get taken over for several billion dollars.
REVERSE SPLIT
Shareholders approved. With Board approval, management can do it. [I think/hope they will, soon – reminds me of ARNA’s RSS which was a big success, stock has more than tripled since then].
Excellent call overall.
PS -- INVESTOR RELATIONS
Lifesci continues to show it's spread too thin and is reactive. Our rep did not know on Monday that the company's shareholder meeting is on that day! And she thought it was a virtual meeting. People can make mistakes but I've heard from others too that LifeSci is not proactive enough because each rep has a ton of companies to "support", and LifeSci gets something like $150,000 a year for that !! Holy Macaroni! They can hire an internet person for less than that na have a dedicated, profesional IR that does many things LifeSci is not doing.
MNLO UPDATE 5 AUG 2020
Reverse Stock Split (RSS) Approved ... RSS should happen this week.
Menlo's shareholders overwhelmingly approved management's proposal to do a reverse split. The ratio will be determined by management. I believe they will go for the highest (1 for 7 shares. If so, if you own 1400 shares you will get 200 shares; if you own 1,400,000 shares you get 200,000 shares; and the share price, will go up 7 times -- so if by then it closes at $2. It will go to $14.
It's much harder to manipulate a $14 stock than a $2 stock -- that, I believe is one reason behind the RSS. Other reasons include the fact that some large institutions are not allowed to buy stocks cheaper than a certain level. This I know as a fact.
Reminds me of ARNA's RSS not long ago. The stock went to around $18 from ~$1.80. Now it's over $63, up 3.5 times. I believe similar positive move awaits MNLO.
ARNA's RSS happened within the same week of approval by shareholders. I think 2 days after the vote the ration was announced and 2 days later the stock traded at the adjusted price (10 times higher in ARNA's case).
If I had to guess, I'd say the company might change name and ticker along with the RSS. I also expect news about EU partnership and/or RoW, ex-US, and ex-China which is already inked.
I feel very confident about MNLO. Doctor and patient adoption of Amzeeq is excellent, and I'm very fond of the company's management.
PS -- my biotech investment guru, Dr. Joseph wrote today the reverse split "should boost the price."
PPS -- Dr. Joseph bought some MNLO today "for the expected RS boost".
MNLO UPDATE 29 JUL 2020
Letter to/about Mr. Joseph Edelman
Billionaire hedgefund manager / biotech analyst Joseph Edelman upped his already large stake in MNLO by another $5,000,000. I researched his background -- very interesting man indeed. Wrote him a letter that can be found at this link (click here). https://emfcrisis.yolasite.com/edelman.php
Excellent New Article
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4359957-menlo-therapeutics-enterprise-valuation-equals-80-of-estimated-peak-annual-sales-of-2-recent
In summary, the author argues that MNLO is deeply undervalued.
Summary
MNLO's enterprise valuation at $1.70/share is <$200MM (after assuming a $25MM Q22020 cash burn). This is less than 80% of MNLO's estimated peak annual sales of $250MM-$300MM/year.
MNLO's CEO recently said a 2 product <$300MM/peak revenue dermatology company is "sub-scale" & hence subject to consolidation. MNLO's 3rd product then failed suggesting MNLO should now be sold.
After raising $50MM+ in June 2020 (roughly equal to 2 quarters of operating expenses), our analysis concludes the risk of material MNLO dilution over the next 12 months is low.
In June 2020 MNLO reported positive Phase 2 top-line data for a 3rd product further making timing ideal to sell MNLO (so a buyer can design the Phase 3 trial).
Our net analysis concludes MNLO shareholder value is maximized via sale to large dermatology company. MNLO shareholders should get $5.00 to $6.50 per share in such a sale.
MNLO UPDATE 16 JUL 2020
Manipulation ahead of reverse stock split (RSS)
Reverse Split is a very good move for MNLO, but it's being portrayed as a very bad move, by short sellers, because they're worried about its positive impact on the stock. There's a systematic pressure of MNLO's price by entities that are short or are bottom fishing, because shorts are worried about the reverse split.
A RSS will be very bad for shorts for a number of reasons I've explained before. So they're shorting more, pressuring and manipulating the stock (e.g. fake offers), in order to make it look like the Reverse Split is a bad move. And they're posting bogus info that tries to manipulate others to not vote in favor of the reverse split. It's a dirty dishonest game they're playing. I've seen this game before, including with a company whose stock more than tripled after a reverse split. I assume management has the votes already, if not, they should lobby to get the votes. I've seen other bios do that ahead of a key vote.
An additional possibility for manipulation is by potential acquirers. We know as a matter of fact, that in the past some big pharmas interested in acquiring a small company have had brokers manipulate the shares down -- it's illegal but we know it's done (via credible evidence).
So MNLO could be getting hit from these multiple directions but in my opinion it'll all turn out fine and the stock should rebound strongly. The first camp (shorts) usually lose in a situation where the company has excellent approved drugs -- so after RSS I expect the stock price to rebound strongly -- not overnight -- but as more institutional investors come on board. This requires, proactive, active, strong IR, which MNLO doesn't have now -- they use LifeSci, some good people, but spread too thin, and reactive.
And if there is manipulation by an prospective acquirer, that has a positive undertone (interest). Key is trust in management. Anyone who doesn't trust the management should sell. I trust the management. So I'll stay invested.
The wild-card is of course Corona. I'm not happy with all the irresponsible promotion of recklessness, esp. by the Incompetent, Liar-in-Chief, Donald Trump. If people are careful we can tame this pandemic.Coroan is a super virus which I believe is human engineered. And add to it the prevelence of RF-EMF pollution (5G, 4G, WiFi. Bluetooth, Smart Meters, etc.), humanity's immune system is weaker than ever.
But I'm cautiously optimistic Corona will get managed (esp. after Trump's defeat), and stocks will do well.
MNLO UPDATE 6 JUL 2020
Stock's Action
A friend asked for my opinion since MNLO has been dropping. Based on years of experience with biotechs, MNLO's drop is not even an event in my opinion -- a non-event. I wrote to him: I don't care I didn't sell at 2.30- I'm not selling at 1.63. Been through these roller coasters too many times with too many stocks, to worry, and I am very confident about Menlo.
~~~
Reverse Split should follow ARNA's path (300+% gain)
ARNA was heavily manipulated before the Reverse Stock Spit (RSS). Same story as MNLO. Lot of negativity posted to deter people from the stock while some entities quietly accumulated. After the RSS the stock tripled. Dr. Joe wrote me today that he observes a smiliar pattern in the intra-day chart of MNLO:
Notice in the current day's trading graph of MNLO the unusual geometric trading patterns. This was last seen with ARNA when the price was being driven down prior to their reverse split. I don't know if this is the connection here but certainly it appears that a robot is in charge of the price movements.
(Blue "S" depicts Reverse Split)
Someone wrote about the potential:
As per statistics released by American Academy of Dermatology, approximately 50 million people in the U.S. have acne. Out of these 50 million cases, around 15% population have moderate-to-severe acne that results in scarring on the skin. Thus the need for acne treatment is increasing at a rapid rate that is further expected to surge the demand for moderate-to-severe acne therapeutics in the country."
So, 7.5M potential users for AMZEEQ. If MNLO got just 10% it would be 750,000 @ $485 or total revenue of $365M . What would MNLO share price be worth then? AND the Rosacea market is another
$1B in just the U.S. with no very effective treatment on the market. So Zilxi could be another revenue blockbuster. AND the company has about $130M in cash to take these products forward. ALL ABOARD!
LEO PHARMA BUYOUT OF MNLO? Someone wrote:
Seems like Leo Pharma owns no acne drug also nothing in their pipeline against acne. They want to be a dermatology leader and grow their US business. Is there a better way than acquiring Menlo? They will get 2 products and a potential third one and the technology of Foamix to make even more. They will also save some money because after acquiring Menlo they will never have to pay royalties for Finacea Foam again. Their headquarters in USA are just 30 mins from each other. And just recently a lot of sales people switched from Leo to Menlo/Foamix. Maybe they already know more than we know.
MNLO UPDATE -- Reverse Split / Price Target
~~~
Price Target. I got a question about 3-5 year price target.
As you know analysts go max 12 months. I haven't thought about 3-5 years but I'm with Cantor on their $15 target. I think MNLO will not exist 3-5 years from now -- it'll be a division of Johnson & Johnson or so -- so we have to predict buyout price. I'd say $20.
~~~
Somone wrote:
"This is not about whether or not there is a reverse merger, or even what the share price is going to be in 30 or 60 days. Here's what it is about: "As per statistics released by American Academy of Dermatology, approximately 50 million people in the U.S. have acne. Out of these 50 million cases, around 15% population have moderate-to-severe acne that results in scarring on the skin. Thus the need for acne treatment is increasing at a rapid rate that is further expected to surge the demand for moderate-to-severe acne therapeutics in the country." So, 7.5M potential users for AMZEEQ. If MNLO got just 10% it would be 750,000 @ $485 or total revenue of $365M . What would MNLO share price be worth then. AND the Rosacea market is another $1B in just the U.S. with no very effective treatment on the market. So Zilxi could be another revenue blockbuster. AND the company has about $130M in cash to take these products forward. ALL ABOARD!"
~~~
Reverse Stock Split (RSS)
Reverse split will be very beneficial for MNLO stock. They're not doing it to stay listed. I think they'll do it to be eligible for investment by big funds; to lower size of float; to weed out penny flippers; etc. I am looking forward to it. 7 to 1 at today's price makes the stock $16.30. And Cantor's $15 will be $105. My buyout target price will be $140, and if scrips get real traction and Corona gets out of the way, and successful launched into Rosacea market in Q4, that target price can be a lot higher. IMHO.
MNLO UPDATE 20 JUN 2020
Stock's Action/ Info From MNLO Market Maker
Large trades at the close / AH are mostly market maker which is transferring the shares it bought to the client. One of Menlo's market makers I talked to said the offering was multiple times over subscribed. He also explained when someone wants to buy a lot of shares they can manage it. He said they buy little by little at right times, and sell it to the customer. He said the transfer to the customer comes at the close / end of the day. So I think that's what these blocks are. And it's bullish. Another thing going for MNLO retail longs is the low institutional interest which means our shares are wanted by institutions. They know the tricks to take shares out of retail hands. I'm holding tight to my shares, in a CASH ACCOUNT.
~~~~~~~
ANSWER TO QUESTION SOMEONE ASKED:
Over subscribed means there was more demand for number of shares than there were shares available for sale. He told me the entire enchilada plus the green shoe was filled instantly. He explained it as something like an over the wall. I have to find my notes. Which means basically they had all the investors lined up, and when it kicked in, they handed the shares over the wall. It wasn't a process where they had to wait for more investors to come in to fill the demand. And there was far more demand than supply.
I asked about quality of investors. He implied because there was a big demand they could be choosy, and picked the top quality investors (like Perceptive).
Also I should add about the price, that sometimes in after-hours you see a price that's below the close price, with a big lot. I believe that is an average price where the big order is handed to the client. He said they used to mark it up but now they just charge commission -- which I think is around 3000 bucks for 100,000 shares at that brokerage. Big institutions don't get this zero commission stuff we pay at the retail brokers. They pay commission because to fill big orders the broker has to work had (I guess sometimes manipulating the investor psychology to get the best price -- but perhaps that's done by more dodgy places. than the respectable firms that ran our books. I can imagine a sleazy hedge fun employing bots, fake big bids and offers, and other tactics they know work on retail investors to create greed or fear (depending which side they are in), to work it in their favor.
And they're patient. A relationship manager at Credit Suisse in Monte Carlo, where they had many ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWI) told me when they want to buy or sell, they're always patient, and do it little by little to prevent the price from running up or down. I think that's what's happening with MNLO : accumulation of big number of shares by big parties. Little by little. But if other buys step in, sometimes it gets out of hand, and they compete for the same offers, and it becomes apparent, and one bids it up, and meanwhile anybody foolish enough to be short panics, and it gets out of hand for prospective buyers and they have to buy at much higher price. I totally see this happening with Menlo in the weeks/ months ahead, pushing the stock to over $4 if Corona, and other macro factors don't hurt us. And that's without catalysts.
Add to it potential catalysts like EMA /Swissmedic filing, partnerships, buyout, etc. etc., and this baby could rocket up closer to average analyst target, over $5 or Cantor's $15 target.
I was an investor in AVNR which was manipulated like hell by scums like Martin Shkreli (with whom I had direct contact and called out his lies, deception...). That $2.xx stock was bought out for $17.xx per share not long later by a Japanese Pharma -- a 7 bagger for the investor who was willing to wait another year. Will MNLO be a 7 bagger? It's possible. 6 bagger puts us at Cantor's recent reiteration of $15 target. IMHO. I'm not giving investment advice. Just sharing my ideas / research.
PS -- I like this price projection chart someone posted:
MNLO UPDATE 12 JUN 2020
Letter to some analysts, etc.
Dear All
Menlo "MNLO" (ex-Foamix) has had a number of key news in last days. A brief note on each, FYI:
Second FDA Approval - Zilxi was approved (topical minocycline for rosacea) -- big under-served market; utilizing same sales force, same prescribers, as Amzeeq. Launch in Q4.
Positive Phase 2 data for FCD105 - moving to phase 3.
Good prescription numbers - Amzeeq sales are strong, scrip trends is very positive.
Secondary - based on feedback I received the secondary was multiple times over-subscribed, and went to top quality investors. It was a wall-over deal that instantly filled.
Analyst upgrades - several analysts have issued upgrades/notes following FDA approval. E.g.:
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Louise Chen said she views the approval positively and believes it sets up the company for a potential "successful" launch of its second FDA approved product in the fourth quarter of this year. Chen, who continues to believe that the peak sales potential for Menlo's products and pipeline are being "underappreciated," keeps an Overweight rating and $15 price target on the shares.
Menlo price target raised to $3.50 from $2.50 at H.C. Wainwright H.C. Wainwright analyst Oren Livnat raised the firm's price target on Menlo Therapeutics to $3.50 from $2.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst increased estimates for the company with Amzeeq volume already up 50% over the last four weeks as shutdowns start to lift. Amzeeq is bouncing back from COVID-19 faster than the analyst expected.
Menlo price target raised to $6 from $3.50 at Northland Northland analyst Tim Chiang raised the firm's price target on Menlo Therapeutics to $6 from $3.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst believes Amzeeq and Zilxi will lead to "meaningful revenue growth" for the company. The recent approval of ZIlxi (adds a complementary product to Menlo's dermatology arsenal, Chiang tells investors in a research note.
A couple of guesses (see discussion on these here: https://rezamusic.yolasite.com/mnlo.php
- sings indicate the company may change name, or get bought out.
- Menlo will probably do a Reverse Split (which will be good for the company.
- Menlo is a ripe takeover target. My best guess is Leo Pharma right now -- or Johnson&Johnson.
This is a good overview article (8 June) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352625-menlo-therapeutics-strong-amzeeq-launch-recent-zilxi-approval-and-positive-fcd105-results
Best wishes
Réza Ganjavi, MBA
MNLO / FOMX / ARNA UPDATE 10 JUN 2020
Notes on Reverse Split & secondary.
Menlo (MNLO), in their latest filing mentioned possibility of Reverse Stock Split (RSS). Here's my 2 cents on the topic based on experience:
Reverse splits are usually bad if the company does it to stay listed. That's not the case here. Our fundamentals are strong. I think RSS will be very good for MNLO. Smaller float. Higher stock price. Those institutions who don't buy stock under $5 will be able to buy. The stock is taken more seriously (I know some veteran investors who don't consider such low priced stocks).
Also it weeds out penny flippers who like low priced stocks and riding it up and down is easy with small capital. Doing so with a stock that's 10 times the price is much harder for them.
Most Stock Splits are not successful because most of them are used for companies under $1 to stay listed. When a st
He has a position in MNLO and I believe he will be following my lead today as I told him I'll be a buyer today if shares drop back to the $1.35 range, something I'm expecting.
These are difficult times for most of us. Political differences, stock market uncertainty, the pandemic---all are, indeed, challenging.
At the end of the email to my friend (mentioned above) I noted that the interviewer's personal take has it that MNLO shares will be fetching upwards of $21/share. Following, then, is the actual interview. I post it now as I hope others will be applying a watchful eye, should the stock shares drop as I'm seeing as a strong possibility. Of course, everyone here must and will decide for him/herself how to proceed with investments.
I hope some find this useful as I know a number of us were earlier unable to access the interview due to a transmission issue.
Here, then, is the majority of the entire piece fully intact save for a little not especially relevant as it involves public statements dating back to early June of this year.
I hope you all enjoy what you're reading!
__________________________________________________
MNLO UPDATE 28 AUG 2020 – Talk with Menlo's CEO, CFO, CCO
27 Aug 2020 call with Menlo (NASDAQ: MNLO)'s CEO (David Domzalski), CFO (Andrew Saik), CCO (Matt Wiley)
Dear All
Yesterday I had a one hour call with Menlo Therapeutics' CEO, CFO, CCO. The CEO said they appreciate my communications, insights, recommendations that I've been sending over the course of the past year (directly to management, since some of us investors consider Menlo's IR (commissioned to LifeSci) as non-existent.
Dave is a breath of fresh air compared to many biotech CEOs I've dealt with. Dave has it all: management skills, sales blood, soft skills, subject matter expertise, big mind. Andrew and Matt are also best-in-class
We covered a lot of areas. I had 6 pages of questions. Here's a summary of my impressions. To be clear, I did not receive any insider information, and this is not an investment advice.
My background is not biotech (it's computer science, management, philosophy, music, law), but have been through thick and thin in biotech as an investor and seen first hand, and battled first hand, with the worst of unethical Wall Street, and kicked some ass in the process (e.g., in collaboration with FINRA).
Current headcount is 100. It was 150 post merger. Some cuts due to Covid (not salesforce) mainly in overseas operations (future of small footprint unknown -- new legislation reduced tax benefit). They've migrated from an internal development model to partnerships/outsourcing so can dial-up/down easily (development, clinical trials). Salesforce consists of 65 people -- 51 reps, 6 managers, head of sales, and admin / marketing / managed care. The organization is lean (can probably be leaner).
Cowan issued a nice note (see below) after the latest prescription data titled "Recent Amzeeq Rx Trends Are Gaining Nice Momentum And Are Cause For Optimism". And a price target of $10/share. Current price: $1.43 !!
CEO said they've seen a meaningful inflection in recent week and they're pleased with the progress [although it could have been a lot better if it wasn't for Covid-19].
The company receives weekly IMS data, as well as historical claims data for the entire dermatology space which helps them target with strategic planning, knowing location of patients, predictive modeling, etc.
Revenue per script: it was anticipated that in the first couple of quarters the company would absorb a lot of the script costs. Coverage is increasing, the third and last PBM should be on board in Q4. Revenue per script should increase as coverage increases. In steady state it’ll be a lot higher than last quarter's average. Net price per plan for payer is $200 to $400.
I asked Matt about the post-Covid-outbreak market “healing”. He said it’s going in the right direction. August should seasonally be a strong month. While scripts have grown, the bounce is not as much as it would have been without Covid19 -- but market is coming back in a reasonable way.
Reverse Stock Split: They had 90% shareholder approval and have a year to do it -- and think about it like I do -- that it should be done at a strategic time for maximum benefit. I've changed my mind about this topic in the last weeks -- I used the Arena model, but Arena hadn't just gone through a bloody merger before their reverse split. They're absolutely not under any pressure to do it (they are not desperate or need to do it). It will happen at the right time.Why max RSS ratio 7 and not 10? One of their main goals for the RSS is to get the share price to a level where some major funds can buy the shares. Some of those funds have a $7 min. Some even have a $10 min. If the conversion is too high, it reduces the size of the float too much and that reduces liquidity (my idea: though a fund can bid up the price to get in). The optimum float size is 30 to 40 mil shares.
Capital Raise: CEO alluded that they're not looking to do a capital raise anytime soon. CFO said they have enough cash till end of 2021. And depending on Covid-19 effect, if sales are good, they may never need to do another raise.
Competition: They monitor competition closely and consider it in their planning. They’re seeing what they saw in market research as well – that topical minocycline is very unique and therefore very disruptive (good). They monitor competition. If competition comes in, it creates “noise” in the market (e.g. acne or rosacea), and noise is considered good in the branded market (helps boost demand). Amzeeq has a very good position in the market irrespective of any newcomers.
DTC: DTC makes sense 6 to 9 month after launch so doctors have enough experience with the drug as new patients are coming to them. Covid changed that timeline. They’re turning on various DTC channels in this and next quarter. Search trends on Amzeeq is not a reliable metric because most new patients don’t know about the drug. So DTC terms help patient land on pages that help educate them about Amzeeq, e.g. acne treatment…
Name Change: The sites of Foamix and Menlo are not fully integrated -- hard to interpret but my sense is they're looking at name change. It’s not that expensive. They’re aware of the baggage after the acquisition. They think about it. Of course they couldn’t tell me if they will or not but I think it makes sense that they do it – and am guessing that they will. And I guess they will do it soon (as postlude to the merger). The CFO has been engaged in name changes before with bigger companies. For a smaller company like us it’s a lot easier.
Options: Options market makers do not consult with the company – and the company is suppose to not be involved in that. So they don’t know. I assume there will be options once we get through this transition.
Cash: Core of expenses in Q2 was 30.5M which was a big decrease. The huge burn in Q2 was related to working capital. At end of Q1 there was a huge accrued liability related to trials. We should not see any more quarterly burn rates like last quarter. They have cash till end of next year. If they hit their revenue targets we may never do another raise. Covid makes it hard to predict.
Cost savings: CEO said he sees it the same was as I that there’s always room for belt tightening (best and most profitable companies still do that). Of course you need to spend money when you need to, but he assured me that they’re mindful of operating efficiently, and running a lean organization, with focus on sales activity and launch. They're selective in their pipeline activity (good; I'm happy they don't start P3 for a while).
Board: We talked about the board of directors, my experience with Lazy-Boy(and Girl) board members in other biotechs. Also, executive management seems top heavy for the small pipeline. Encouraged CEO to be disruptive -- the Board needs him -- he's the boss and should call the shots, and cut, even at the very top. I'm totally for rightsizing, including the board.
Open market buys: CEO will convey message that we want to see Board members buy in open market. He said he likes the idea and is looking into it. Of course he's restricted by MNPI (material nonpublic info) constraints.
Stock action: They're not aware of any institution selling out -- they've asked about the stock action and feedback was it's mainly retail selling -- and probably related to automatic transaction (Stop Loss Orders) [where a market participant who sees a SL-order manipulates the price down to make the shareholder lose the shares at that manipulated low price -- a practice that can be unlawful -- in fact, I'm planning to make a report to my FINRA contacts to investigate it].
Institutions: They've had discussions with large institutional investors, and the feedback is supportive. Institutions have told them, continue to execute and it will work out. Those institutions know what they're talking about
Roadshow: We didn't specifically talk about that but I guess that there may be a road show to present the company to more institutions. Again, purely my guess: I think they will do a name change -- a reverse split -- launch in mid-Sep as they've said before -- and then it makes sense to get out there and promote the new company
Trust: I shared my experience in this field: Don't trust anybody on Wall Street -- and I know this from very high levels, that surprise is their enemy, and everything you say you will do and won't do can be used against you. So confidentiality is key. And of course, under-promise, over-deliver. And integrity and truthfulness is most important (which they have). Wall Street, as dishonest as it is, punishes management it cannot trust. Also it's documented that some big pharmas which want to buy a small company have engaged in manipulating the stock down. I am happy Dave grasps all these.
Partnership: Cutia partnership: how did they find you? Cutia came to us via their parent organization. They found us. That's awesome
-- Dave was only interested if there was a good up front payment. Forget these deals with promises for later. Cash is king now (my words). Very low risk transaction. Small market. Nice up front payment. They will commercialize in China etc. in the future. EU, CH: They have had and continue to have discussions. The deal just has to make sense. They won't go alone (of course). Main focus in US. But license partner in Ex-US makes sense.
Alliance Management: Is part of the legal group. Not a dedicated person. Makes sense. They are small co, and wear many hats.
Fair Value: What price would you consider for a buyout? This triggered an interesting discussion with Andrew talking about his model for calculating fair value based on peak revenue expectation, but of course, they wouldn't give me a number. But I did some calculations myself -- if you take a couple of drugs at a couple of hundred million peak sale each, you get something like $21 / share which makes analyst estimates conservative.
Buyout: They're open to consider any compelling offer. They're not out shopping the company. They're focused on building the company. I have a sense that a buyer will step up with a compelling offer. I bluntly asked if there's been any interest. That put them into a limbo and a laughing session ensued (we joked around). Of course I knew they couldn't answer. One commented that they're usually asked that in face-to-face meetings. I said I can read minds even on the phone
-- and the CEO remarked that he likes my style Leo Pharma: Rumor is they may be a buyer. My sense is that Leo has a lot on their hand and I don't think they're not The one (just my guess). They have a good relationship.
Gave them some feedback on some things, e.g., company presentation, e.g. dominance of while old men with beard that's not our patient space ... anyway I think / hope they will revamp company's IR / PR... and other topics.
IR: We discussed IR at length. They're aware of the concerns and looking at it... I think dedication is very important -- even if it's an internal person who is 30% dedicated to it. Current model with LifeSci seems very expensive and ineffective. Zeno works project based.
Overall, I sensed a lot of confidence in them.
COWAN'S NOTE
Menlo Therapeutics (NASDAQ: MNLO)
Outperform
Price Target: $10.00
Recent Amzeeq Rx Trends Are Gaining Nice Momentum And Are Cause For Optimism
The Cowen Insight
The Amzeeq launch was solid up until the pandemic-driven office closures. However, recent Rx trends show a nice recovery/inflection, and with the broadening payor coverage, it does appear that Amzeeq is back on track. With Amzeeq setting a nice foundation, Zilxi for rosacea (Q4 launch) should further leverage. We continue to believe combined Amzeeq/Zilxi sales could eventually exceed $500MM+.
Although the pandemic has had an obvious impact on what was, by any objective measure, a solid initial Amzeeq launch, we believe management now has this critical franchise back on track. Notably, Amzeeq prescriptions are inflecting, with the most recent weekly figures (via both IQVIA and Symphony) showing levels that exceed the pre-pandemic highs, and nicely ahead of our expectations.For perspective, utilizing the most recent weekly total Rx figures and a normalized pricing of roughly $200-250 per Rx would suggest an annualized run-rate of $30-35MM, which is an encouraging recovery post the most onerous part of the pandemic. And with most target physician practices now open (90%+), we believe this Amzeeq momentum should continue, and will soon be leveraged by the Zilxi Q4 launch.
Amzeeq Prescription Trajectory
Recall, Amzeeq launched in January, and despite the pandemic setback, management has already secured roughly 65% commercial lives and should reach 80% by Q4. We believe this underscores Menlo's pragmatic pricing strategy for Amzeeq that should allow for broad coverage to capture of meaningful volumes while still maintaining a healthy $200-250 prescription value (note, management continues to indicate that value per Rx should trend in the $200-400 range although we are using the lower end for conservatism). Our conversations with other dermatology industry participants indicate that they believe this volume-based pricing strategy that will allow for broad coverage makes complete sense given the size of the potential market, and should allow for constructive payor negotiations for Zilxi. And lastly, it does appear that the number of unique prescribers has continued to grow despite the pandemic (to 4,200), another very positive metric this early in its launch.
MNLO UPDATE 26 AUG 2020 --Biotech Investing
An investor wrote me:
"I understand and love the product, just that for bio investments I’m fairly new so I hope to hear more from you."
I happen to have a lot of biotech investment and investment research experience. But I am not a financial analyst or banker etc., so everyrthing I tell you are my opinions, they're not financial professional opinions, and are not investment advice.
Biotech companies are in several key categories from an investment perspective. MNLO is in a special situation that's not glamorous and glittery predsently but I expect it will make a lot of money for me.
Soon it will have multiple products in the market and in that sense it's derisked. It's not doing major risky trials. On P3 coming up which I view as low risk due to the strong P2 data. But focus here is revenue and partnerships or buyout. Not many sellers, and big buyers work with market makers who don't want to run the bid up. So some park the stock and manipulate it. A lot of shares will change hands from retail to institutions and based on my experience this often happens at the lowest possible price. Retail gets taken out at minimum price because it's easy to manipulate emotions of retail. You set up the stock to look like it's doom and gloom, and send some people to trash talk the stock on message boards, and eventually you get a lot of shares sold at rock bottom price.
So I believe that's where we're at. It's a contained, controlled quiet before the storm. I expect a partnership or buyout news, and increasing sales number to change this picture radically.
Just my opinions.
Réza Ganjavi
MNLO UPDATE 25 AUG 2020 --Commentary
Why is the Reverse Stock Split taking time? I speculate:
Imagine if you had a big news item pending: an anticipated EU or RoW partnership for example, and a launch in 3 weeks, or other things. Would you do the Reverse Stock Split now or combine it with one or more or all these events. What if you also wanted to change the company name and stock symbol. Same applies. So I think there's a reason RSS is not announced yet.
~~~
I scanned a message board. Some very intelligent things posted (all are opinions of their authors and not an investment advice):
My brother has been using Amzeeq for several weeks now. Dermatologist with decades of experience recommended it. He is very pleased with the results, says he now has smooth skin but still a few red dots, but overall very happy. I just saw him and he looks good. Long and Strong.
“Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised.” Warren Buffet. That's Menlo.
Waiting game for this. putting away negative emotions and bit by bit accumulation of cheap shares. 20Q4 is around the corner.
Does this company have a marketing staff? A communications staff? An Investor Relations staff? How can any management team operating in the year 2020 be so limited in communications strategies? I feel like if they hired a good Communications VP the company and stock would be jump started. [Another person: They haven't responded to my questions.] [I also think Menlo's Investor Relations is weak].
Investors should consider Almirall said it estimated peak Seysara sales at between $150MM & $200MM/year just in the United States. We noted MNLO's AMZEEQ was, more or less, trending to match Seysara's launch in Q12019 before COVID-19. If Almirall (who also sells Aczone) believes Seysara peak sales are $150MM to $200MM just in the US (and Almirall is, without a doubt, an expert in acne) & most believe AMZEEQ is more or less comparable to Seysara then it appears reasonable to conclude peak AMZEEQ sales (worldwide) could also be north of $200MM/year. If, again if, new therapies like AMZEEQ are worth 2 to 5 times estimated peak sales and if, again if, AMZEEQ peak sales are roughly $200MM then it is additional confirmation that MNLO with an enterprise valuation of less than $200MM at $1.60/share is materially undervalued. Our analysis also concludes MNLO management must consider a sale if doing so maximizes shareholder value versus going it alone.
Anyone that post bearish on this board dont even know anything about this company. If there are facts being presented on why to be bearish then I prefer to see that. Here are some facts about this company that Y’all should know: - 1 product approved and being market since 1qt 2020 - 2nd product approved and will be market on 4th qt of 2020 - 3rd product finish phase 2 with top line results - they got over 100 million on cash - institution increase position since 1qt
Company is very undervalued and will soon see the price appreciate by time.
It is quite unfortunate that Amzeeq launch coincided with the Covid19. the entire country and world literally shut down. They said doctor inpatient visits dropped to 23/week for dermatologist from 160!! In July however the trend has started to reverse and hopefully picking back up now. Zilski will launch Q4!! Both are projected in the 200-400M range each peak sales!!! With yet another product going into Ph3!! All of this points to a fabolous buying opportunity here!!!
Catalyst in October to November 1. Launch of zilxi 2. News of initial insurance coverage of zilxi 3. Completion of 3rd payer contract for amzeeq which would give them a better gross to net 4. Earnings 5. Vaccine news from morsel and pfizer
Have 32 stocks on my ThinkorSwim streaming watch list. Almost all of them are small biotechs. 29 of those stocks are down today even though the indexes are up. MNLO is down about 2.5% while many of the others are down between 4% and 9%. So this seems to be more of a category hit rather than this particular stock. If by the end of the year MNLO is $5, it won't have mattered today if it was $1.55 or $1.80.
Once a product is approved it can take many months to create a marketing program, packaging, contacting and educating physicians and having enough out on the market to get sufficient testimonials. That's why it is not unusual and even normal for stocks like this to be in a downturn while these things happen. Even more so with a pandemic going on. But if the company has a good product in a good market, very suddenly this situation can turn around and when the gains come they can be very fast an AMAZINGLY HUGE.
Holding my shares. Products are real. At some point this should move to $5. Might be six months--but, returns to good to pass up.
MNLO UPDATE 19 AUG 2020 --Next Steps
Over 50% of Menlo (MNLO) shares are now owned by institutions.
What's next for MNLO? In my opinion (not an investment advice):
1) Reverse stock split any day at 1 for 7 ratio. Might be combined with company name, stock symbol change.
2) Partnership or buyout:
- European / RoW partnership
- EMEA, Swissmedic filing
- Both above items might not happen if in buyout talks, which also explains the stock weakness since we know potential aqcuirers sometimes manipulate the stock (it's documented to have happened to other companies).
3) Launch of new drug Zilxi in less than a month; same sales force; mostly same target doctors; low overhead; increased revenue. Insurance coverage for Zilxi already in place and to increase.
4) Excellent reviews about Amzeeq. Increased sales trend should continue.
5) With RSS and increasing sales and new launch institutions will want to increase their ownership.
Lawsuit settlement approved by court a few days ago. Case closed.
I see bright future for MNLO lest macro risks.
Huwan hasn't had a Corona case for weeks. Let's hope that translates to US & RoW.
Best Regards
Reza
MNLO UPDATE 13 AUG 2020 -- Email to management
Gents
Arena's was a very successful reverse split. They did it immediately after shareholder approval. Stock has over tripled since then.
I don't know why you didn't go for 1-for-10 ratio. I trust Andrew's financial acumen but seem the higher the price the better.
Perhaps you're combining it with a name change etc. - or hopefully a EU filing and/or partnership (or RoW). The stock is very easy to manipulate, including by your friends (our underwriters).
Reminder: play your cards very close to your chest. In Persian they say "the wall has mice and mice has ears". And that info is used against the stock. And reiterate this top secrecy message to your staff -- it has to be a part of the company culture -- people tend to forget that.
Also, reduce your exposure to RF-EMF (wifi, cell, etc. -- go wired internet). It damages the DNA.
More power to you.
Reza
MNLO UPDATE 6 AUG 2020-- Key Takeaways & Commentary: Menlo (MNLO) Conference Call 6 Aug 2020 – by Reza Ganjavi
Completed merger. Now Menlo/Foamix is a US based company. Signed partnership for China+. 2 products approved by FDA in < 9 months.
Management is laser focused on shareholder value. They have a solid plan. [I like and trust them – they’re one of the best biotech management teams I’ve ever known. CEO, CCO, CFO are all top notch.]
1 full hour. Many analysts called in. Several analysts congratulated Menlo on the progress.
AMZEEQ
Amzeeq – Covid19 hurt the market as expected. 90% of dermatology offices are open. Despite limited openings 75% of the reps’ meeting with doctors were face to face (now even higher %). Sample velocity was slow in April and May due to shutdowns but has been recovering in recent weeks. 22169 TRx in Q2. 7.3% growth since Q1 despite Covid blues.
Last week we distributed more samples to offices than any week we have since launch – it was an astonishing number (same level as initial stocking of physician offices in January). Throughput is increasing (samples moving out of the doctor offices). More new offices opening up. More unique weekly prescribers. Market is healing in a very positive direction.
In recent weeks we’ve see very strong recovery in TRx, up 85% from March. Unique prescribers continue to grow -- 4200 new doctors in Q2.
60 speaker programs in Q2 educating over 600 doctors [great!].
Insurance: 63% of commercial lives covered. Negotiation with one PBM ongoing. By Q4, 80% of commercial lives should be covered. $200-$400/scrip.
Week of July 24, we have over 2400 prescriptions. Seeing the recovery we expected. NRx dropped 30% from March to April because of Covid19. The market has not recovered back to February level yet (due to Covid19). The market is healing nicely, but hasn’t completely. We expect it to come back. Patients haven’t gone away. They still need Ameeq. Throughput is healing across the country.
Positive patient testimonials [and online]. Patients are switching to Amzeeq nicely. We’re creating our own lane in acne space. Reality of launch is matching the market research that was done prior to it.
We’re seeing nice reopenings in this space and recent scrip numbers which are just about the pre-Covid-level, and nice weekly increases [fingers crossed the trend continues].
ZILXI
Zilxi for inflammatory lesions of rosacea in adults – first approved minocycline for rosacea – should receive broad market acceptance – launching Q4 – excellent data from trials on over 1500 people, and market research show that patients really like the clean safety profile / tolerability of Zilxi vs. other treatments that irritate them (high discontinuation rate).
Zilxi will be launched mid-September! Salesforce getting ready. High overlap with Acne market (87% - need to reach out to 500 more doctors – existing reps can do]. No need to hire more sales reps. 98% of doctors surveyed intend to prescribe Zilxi! Huge unmet need. Efficacy, clean profile, long-term impact.
Insurance coverage negotiation ongoing – same path as Amzeeq which was effective. [expected 80+% of commercial lives to be covered – at $200 to $400/scrip].
Market is ready. High unmet need. Even more ready because masks exacerbate rosacea symptoms, and acne patients too.
105
FCD105 positive P2 data (over 470 patients). Best in class potential. Q4 meeting with FDA / and to make plans for P3 (to start 2021H1).
FINANCES
Cash balance over $100 million as of 30 June 2020. No need to raise funds till end of 2021. [with sales traction, partnership deals, credit availability, there’s a chance the company will never dilute again].
Extended credit agreement for 6 months due to Covid. [RG’S COMMENTS:]
I believe this refers to access to non-dilutive credit financing they could obtain once sales reach certain threshold – this is a good thing. Reminds me of AVNR which used debt financing instead of diluting while it was in similar price range at MNLO ($2 range) and had launched Nuedexta – it was bought by Otsuka for $3.5B ($17/share) after it traded for a long time in the $2 share, manipulated by Martin Shkreli, etc. (off topic drama).
When in the 2’s the company was worth around $400M – it did a very good job of self-launching Nuedexta – and did all the things Menlo is also doing (speaker series etc.), and it was bought got $3.5 billion. In MNLO terms that’s around $22 / share. Avanir’s job was harder than Menlo, since Pseudobulbar Affect market was totally raw and AVNR had to develop it from scratch. Acne and Rosacea are ripe markets. Menlo should do even better than Avanir and get taken over for several billion dollars.
REVERSE SPLIT
Shareholders approved. With Board approval, management can do it. [I think/hope they will, soon – reminds me of ARNA’s RSS which was a big success, stock has more than tripled since then].
Excellent call overall.
PS -- INVESTOR RELATIONS
Lifesci continues to show it's spread too thin and is reactive. Our rep did not know on Monday that the company's shareholder meeting is on that day! And she thought it was a virtual meeting. People can make mistakes but I've heard from others too that LifeSci is not proactive enough because each rep has a ton of companies to "support", and LifeSci gets something like $150,000 a year for that !! Holy Macaroni! They can hire an internet person for less than that na have a dedicated, profesional IR that does many things LifeSci is not doing.
MNLO UPDATE 5 AUG 2020
Reverse Stock Split (RSS) Approved ... RSS should happen this week.
Menlo's shareholders overwhelmingly approved management's proposal to do a reverse split. The ratio will be determined by management. I believe they will go for the highest (1 for 7 shares. If so, if you own 1400 shares you will get 200 shares; if you own 1,400,000 shares you get 200,000 shares; and the share price, will go up 7 times -- so if by then it closes at $2. It will go to $14.
It's much harder to manipulate a $14 stock than a $2 stock -- that, I believe is one reason behind the RSS. Other reasons include the fact that some large institutions are not allowed to buy stocks cheaper than a certain level. This I know as a fact.
Reminds me of ARNA's RSS not long ago. The stock went to around $18 from ~$1.80. Now it's over $63, up 3.5 times. I believe similar positive move awaits MNLO.
ARNA's RSS happened within the same week of approval by shareholders. I think 2 days after the vote the ration was announced and 2 days later the stock traded at the adjusted price (10 times higher in ARNA's case).
If I had to guess, I'd say the company might change name and ticker along with the RSS. I also expect news about EU partnership and/or RoW, ex-US, and ex-China which is already inked.
I feel very confident about MNLO. Doctor and patient adoption of Amzeeq is excellent, and I'm very fond of the company's management.
PS -- my biotech investment guru, Dr. Joseph wrote today the reverse split "should boost the price."
PPS -- Dr. Joseph bought some MNLO today "for the expected RS boost".
MNLO UPDATE 29 JUL 2020
Letter to/about Mr. Joseph Edelman
Billionaire hedgefund manager / biotech analyst Joseph Edelman upped his already large stake in MNLO by another $5,000,000. I researched his background -- very interesting man indeed. Wrote him a letter that can be found at this link (click here). https://emfcrisis.yolasite.com/edelman.php
Excellent New Article
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4359957-menlo-therapeutics-enterprise-valuation-equals-80-of-estimated-peak-annual-sales-of-2-recent
In summary, the author argues that MNLO is deeply undervalued.
Summary
MNLO's enterprise valuation at $1.70/share is <$200MM (after assuming a $25MM Q22020 cash burn). This is less than 80% of MNLO's estimated peak annual sales of $250MM-$300MM/year.
MNLO's CEO recently said a 2 product <$300MM/peak revenue dermatology company is "sub-scale" & hence subject to consolidation. MNLO's 3rd product then failed suggesting MNLO should now be sold.
After raising $50MM+ in June 2020 (roughly equal to 2 quarters of operating expenses), our analysis concludes the risk of material MNLO dilution over the next 12 months is low.
In June 2020 MNLO reported positive Phase 2 top-line data for a 3rd product further making timing ideal to sell MNLO (so a buyer can design the Phase 3 trial).
Our net analysis concludes MNLO shareholder value is maximized via sale to large dermatology company. MNLO shareholders should get $5.00 to $6.50 per share in such a sale.
MNLO UPDATE 16 JUL 2020
Manipulation ahead of reverse stock split (RSS)
Reverse Split is a very good move for MNLO, but it's being portrayed as a very bad move, by short sellers, because they're worried about its positive impact on the stock. There's a systematic pressure of MNLO's price by entities that are short or are bottom fishing, because shorts are worried about the reverse split.
A RSS will be very bad for shorts for a number of reasons I've explained before. So they're shorting more, pressuring and manipulating the stock (e.g. fake offers), in order to make it look like the Reverse Split is a bad move. And they're posting bogus info that tries to manipulate others to not vote in favor of the reverse split. It's a dirty dishonest game they're playing. I've seen this game before, including with a company whose stock more than tripled after a reverse split. I assume management has the votes already, if not, they should lobby to get the votes. I've seen other bios do that ahead of a key vote.
An additional possibility for manipulation is by potential acquirers. We know as a matter of fact, that in the past some big pharmas interested in acquiring a small company have had brokers manipulate the shares down -- it's illegal but we know it's done (via credible evidence).
So MNLO could be getting hit from these multiple directions but in my opinion it'll all turn out fine and the stock should rebound strongly. The first camp (shorts) usually lose in a situation where the company has excellent approved drugs -- so after RSS I expect the stock price to rebound strongly -- not overnight -- but as more institutional investors come on board. This requires, proactive, active, strong IR, which MNLO doesn't have now -- they use LifeSci, some good people, but spread too thin, and reactive.
And if there is manipulation by an prospective acquirer, that has a positive undertone (interest). Key is trust in management. Anyone who doesn't trust the management should sell. I trust the management. So I'll stay invested.
The wild-card is of course Corona. I'm not happy with all the irresponsible promotion of recklessness, esp. by the Incompetent, Liar-in-Chief, Donald Trump. If people are careful we can tame this pandemic.Coroan is a super virus which I believe is human engineered. And add to it the prevelence of RF-EMF pollution (5G, 4G, WiFi. Bluetooth, Smart Meters, etc.), humanity's immune system is weaker than ever.
But I'm cautiously optimistic Corona will get managed (esp. after Trump's defeat), and stocks will do well.
MNLO UPDATE 6 JUL 2020
Stock's Action
A friend asked for my opinion since MNLO has been dropping. Based on years of experience with biotechs, MNLO's drop is not even an event in my opinion -- a non-event. I wrote to him: I don't care I didn't sell at 2.30- I'm not selling at 1.63. Been through these roller coasters too many times with too many stocks, to worry, and I am very confident about Menlo.
~~~
Reverse Split should follow ARNA's path (300+% gain)
ARNA was heavily manipulated before the Reverse Stock Spit (RSS). Same story as MNLO. Lot of negativity posted to deter people from the stock while some entities quietly accumulated. After the RSS the stock tripled. Dr. Joe wrote me today that he observes a smiliar pattern in the intra-day chart of MNLO:
Notice in the current day's trading graph of MNLO the unusual geometric trading patterns. This was last seen with ARNA when the price was being driven down prior to their reverse split. I don't know if this is the connection here but certainly it appears that a robot is in charge of the price movements.
(Blue "S" depicts Reverse Split)
Someone wrote about the potential:
As per statistics released by American Academy of Dermatology, approximately 50 million people in the U.S. have acne. Out of these 50 million cases, around 15% population have moderate-to-severe acne that results in scarring on the skin. Thus the need for acne treatment is increasing at a rapid rate that is further expected to surge the demand for moderate-to-severe acne therapeutics in the country."
So, 7.5M potential users for AMZEEQ. If MNLO got just 10% it would be 750,000 @ $485 or total revenue of $365M . What would MNLO share price be worth then? AND the Rosacea market is another
$1B in just the U.S. with no very effective treatment on the market. So Zilxi could be another revenue blockbuster. AND the company has about $130M in cash to take these products forward. ALL ABOARD!
LEO PHARMA BUYOUT OF MNLO? Someone wrote:
Seems like Leo Pharma owns no acne drug also nothing in their pipeline against acne. They want to be a dermatology leader and grow their US business. Is there a better way than acquiring Menlo? They will get 2 products and a potential third one and the technology of Foamix to make even more. They will also save some money because after acquiring Menlo they will never have to pay royalties for Finacea Foam again. Their headquarters in USA are just 30 mins from each other. And just recently a lot of sales people switched from Leo to Menlo/Foamix. Maybe they already know more than we know.
MNLO UPDATE -- Reverse Split / Price Target
~~~
Price Target. I got a question about 3-5 year price target.
As you know analysts go max 12 months. I haven't thought about 3-5 years but I'm with Cantor on their $15 target. I think MNLO will not exist 3-5 years from now -- it'll be a division of Johnson & Johnson or so -- so we have to predict buyout price. I'd say $20.
~~~
Somone wrote:
"This is not about whether or not there is a reverse merger, or even what the share price is going to be in 30 or 60 days. Here's what it is about: "As per statistics released by American Academy of Dermatology, approximately 50 million people in the U.S. have acne. Out of these 50 million cases, around 15% population have moderate-to-severe acne that results in scarring on the skin. Thus the need for acne treatment is increasing at a rapid rate that is further expected to surge the demand for moderate-to-severe acne therapeutics in the country." So, 7.5M potential users for AMZEEQ. If MNLO got just 10% it would be 750,000 @ $485 or total revenue of $365M . What would MNLO share price be worth then. AND the Rosacea market is another $1B in just the U.S. with no very effective treatment on the market. So Zilxi could be another revenue blockbuster. AND the company has about $130M in cash to take these products forward. ALL ABOARD!"
~~~
Reverse Stock Split (RSS)
Reverse split will be very beneficial for MNLO stock. They're not doing it to stay listed. I think they'll do it to be eligible for investment by big funds; to lower size of float; to weed out penny flippers; etc. I am looking forward to it. 7 to 1 at today's price makes the stock $16.30. And Cantor's $15 will be $105. My buyout target price will be $140, and if scrips get real traction and Corona gets out of the way, and successful launched into Rosacea market in Q4, that target price can be a lot higher. IMHO.
MNLO UPDATE 20 JUN 2020
Stock's Action/ Info From MNLO Market Maker
Large trades at the close / AH are mostly market maker which is transferring the shares it bought to the client. One of Menlo's market makers I talked to said the offering was multiple times over subscribed. He also explained when someone wants to buy a lot of shares they can manage it. He said they buy little by little at right times, and sell it to the customer. He said the transfer to the customer comes at the close / end of the day. So I think that's what these blocks are. And it's bullish. Another thing going for MNLO retail longs is the low institutional interest which means our shares are wanted by institutions. They know the tricks to take shares out of retail hands. I'm holding tight to my shares, in a CASH ACCOUNT.
~~~~~~~
ANSWER TO QUESTION SOMEONE ASKED:
Over subscribed means there was more demand for number of shares than there were shares available for sale. He told me the entire enchilada plus the green shoe was filled instantly. He explained it as something like an over the wall. I have to find my notes. Which means basically they had all the investors lined up, and when it kicked in, they handed the shares over the wall. It wasn't a process where they had to wait for more investors to come in to fill the demand. And there was far more demand than supply.
I asked about quality of investors. He implied because there was a big demand they could be choosy, and picked the top quality investors (like Perceptive).
Also I should add about the price, that sometimes in after-hours you see a price that's below the close price, with a big lot. I believe that is an average price where the big order is handed to the client. He said they used to mark it up but now they just charge commission -- which I think is around 3000 bucks for 100,000 shares at that brokerage. Big institutions don't get this zero commission stuff we pay at the retail brokers. They pay commission because to fill big orders the broker has to work had (I guess sometimes manipulating the investor psychology to get the best price -- but perhaps that's done by more dodgy places. than the respectable firms that ran our books. I can imagine a sleazy hedge fun employing bots, fake big bids and offers, and other tactics they know work on retail investors to create greed or fear (depending which side they are in), to work it in their favor.
And they're patient. A relationship manager at Credit Suisse in Monte Carlo, where they had many ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWI) told me when they want to buy or sell, they're always patient, and do it little by little to prevent the price from running up or down. I think that's what's happening with MNLO : accumulation of big number of shares by big parties. Little by little. But if other buys step in, sometimes it gets out of hand, and they compete for the same offers, and it becomes apparent, and one bids it up, and meanwhile anybody foolish enough to be short panics, and it gets out of hand for prospective buyers and they have to buy at much higher price. I totally see this happening with Menlo in the weeks/ months ahead, pushing the stock to over $4 if Corona, and other macro factors don't hurt us. And that's without catalysts.
Add to it potential catalysts like EMA /Swissmedic filing, partnerships, buyout, etc. etc., and this baby could rocket up closer to average analyst target, over $5 or Cantor's $15 target.
I was an investor in AVNR which was manipulated like hell by scums like Martin Shkreli (with whom I had direct contact and called out his lies, deception...). That $2.xx stock was bought out for $17.xx per share not long later by a Japanese Pharma -- a 7 bagger for the investor who was willing to wait another year. Will MNLO be a 7 bagger? It's possible. 6 bagger puts us at Cantor's recent reiteration of $15 target. IMHO. I'm not giving investment advice. Just sharing my ideas / research.
PS -- I like this price projection chart someone posted:
MNLO UPDATE 12 JUN 2020
Letter to some analysts, etc.
Dear All
Menlo "MNLO" (ex-Foamix) has had a number of key news in last days. A brief note on each, FYI:
Second FDA Approval - Zilxi was approved (topical minocycline for rosacea) -- big under-served market; utilizing same sales force, same prescribers, as Amzeeq. Launch in Q4.
Positive Phase 2 data for FCD105 - moving to phase 3.
Good prescription numbers - Amzeeq sales are strong, scrip trends is very positive.
Secondary - based on feedback I received the secondary was multiple times over-subscribed, and went to top quality investors. It was a wall-over deal that instantly filled.
Analyst upgrades - several analysts have issued upgrades/notes following FDA approval. E.g.:
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Louise Chen said she views the approval positively and believes it sets up the company for a potential "successful" launch of its second FDA approved product in the fourth quarter of this year. Chen, who continues to believe that the peak sales potential for Menlo's products and pipeline are being "underappreciated," keeps an Overweight rating and $15 price target on the shares.
Menlo price target raised to $3.50 from $2.50 at H.C. Wainwright H.C. Wainwright analyst Oren Livnat raised the firm's price target on Menlo Therapeutics to $3.50 from $2.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst increased estimates for the company with Amzeeq volume already up 50% over the last four weeks as shutdowns start to lift. Amzeeq is bouncing back from COVID-19 faster than the analyst expected.
Menlo price target raised to $6 from $3.50 at Northland Northland analyst Tim Chiang raised the firm's price target on Menlo Therapeutics to $6 from $3.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst believes Amzeeq and Zilxi will lead to "meaningful revenue growth" for the company. The recent approval of ZIlxi (adds a complementary product to Menlo's dermatology arsenal, Chiang tells investors in a research note.
A couple of guesses (see discussion on these here: https://rezamusic.yolasite.com/mnlo.php
- sings indicate the company may change name, or get bought out.
- Menlo will probably do a Reverse Split (which will be good for the company.
- Menlo is a ripe takeover target. My best guess is Leo Pharma right now -- or Johnson&Johnson.
This is a good overview article (8 June) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352625-menlo-therapeutics-strong-amzeeq-launch-recent-zilxi-approval-and-positive-fcd105-results
Best wishes
Réza Ganjavi, MBA
MNLO / FOMX / ARNA UPDATE 10 JUN 2020
Notes on Reverse Split & secondary.
Menlo (MNLO), in their latest filing mentioned possibility of Reverse Stock Split (RSS). Here's my 2 cents on the topic based on experience:
Reverse splits are usually bad if the company does it to stay listed. That's not the case here. Our fundamentals are strong. I think RSS will be very good for MNLO. Smaller float. Higher stock price. Those institutions who don't buy stock under $5 will be able to buy. The stock is taken more seriously (I know some veteran investors who don't consider such low priced stocks).
Also it weeds out penny flippers who like low priced stocks and riding it up and down is easy with small capital. Doing so with a stock that's 10 times the price is much harder for them.
Most Stock Splits are not successful because most of them are used for companies under $1 to stay listed. When a st
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