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NY Crude Oil Futures - Further Decline Likely »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 22, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 4234 is immediately trading down about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 3 months going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's close of 4027.


Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction rally from the low established during April. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, with respect to time, there was a prospect of a decline moving into Fri. 21st with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 25th. There are 3 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 24th to Wed. 26th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Days. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 4207 and resistance at 4257 and 4314 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
4257
4314
4207

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 4196. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 4247, 4288, and 4346. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The NY Crude Oil Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low intraday but we closed back above that low yet still closed lower at the end of the trading session. This market has closed higher for this week compared to last week's closing of 4201. Nevertheless, the market has plunged significantly again by 3.53%. Up to now, the market has declined for the past 3 days meaning this is still within the time frame of a reaction.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 4181 settling at 4282. The current crash mode support for this session was 4080 which we still closed above implying the market is holding for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 4085. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 3984 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 4080
Previous... 4181
Tomorrow... 4085

Presently, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bullish.


REVERSAL SYSTEM

Looking at our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 4740 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 4208. This provides a very near-term 28% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 5438 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 3906. This provides a 28% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 5693 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 1820. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 68%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

4842 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
4757 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
4740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
4208 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
4116 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
4084 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
4007 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3996 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3980 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3965 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3946 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3945 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3904 | 1 | 3906 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
3853 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3778 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3747 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3730 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3637 | 1 | 3707 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
3587 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3527 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3447 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3435 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 4219
Weekly ....... 3982
Monthly ...... 1961
Quarterly .... -4026
Yearly ....... 3682

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to this moment in time, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 1804 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Presently, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 10015 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. At the moment, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 12813 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

We closed the previous month at 3927 after making a new high up two months from the low established back in June during 2020 at 2913. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our monthly indicating range models as was the case last month.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market is still holding positive on the yearly level of our indicating models trading between overhead system resistance and underlying support. It remains in a bearish position on the quarter models warning it is not breaking out to the upside right now. The monthly is negative for now and the short-term weekly is positive. The market has bounced making a new high on the monthly level during July and on the weekly level the market has also continued to rally exceeding the previous week's high.

This past year alone, saw a significant price drop of about 42%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Crude Oil Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 4740 | 11.95% | 4208 | 0.614% |
WEEKLY........ 5438 | 28.43% | 3906 | 7.746% |
MONTHLY....... 5693 | 34.45% | 1820 | 57.01% |
QUARTERLY..... 5525 | 30.49% | 2020 | 52.29% |
YEARLY........ 9270 | 118.9% | 3512 | 17.05% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


Now, turning to our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still positive but declining right now.

OVERALL TREND

On the quarterly level, this market is still in a bearish position. Looking at the weekly short-term level, this market is still bullish on our momentum and trend indicatorswhile the broader term is neutral to bullish. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

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