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NY Crude Oil Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 15, 2020

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 4201 is immediately trading down about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 3 months going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's close of 4027.


Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction rally from the low established during April. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, considering all timing factors, there was a possibility of a decline moving into today was Fri. 14th with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 18th. There are 5 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 17th to Wed. 26th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Days. We also see a convergence in the Array with both the Directional Change and Panic Cycle lining up for the same target of Mon. 17th. This accentuates the importance of this target as an event on the horizon. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 4202, 4206, and 4293 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
4202
4206
4293

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 4193. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 4211, 4243, and 4288. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The NY Crude Oil Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level crashing sharply by 2.84%. This market has exceeded intraday 2 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 4118. At present, the projected extreme resistance stands at 4329.


At present, the market remains neutral on the short-term levels of both momentum and trend on our indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. The Superposition Reversal for tomorrow will be 4057 and a closing above that even after the election of Daily Bearish Reversals today, will imply a turn back to test overhead resistance will be possible.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 4114 settling at 4224. The current crash mode support for this session was 4186 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 4201 implying the market is still basing sustaining above the last low for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 4135. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 3553 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 4186
Previous... 4114
Tomorrow... 4135

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 4294. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 2478, 3707, and 3906, whereas a close below the previous low 4117 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Looking at our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 4740 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 4084. This provides a very near-term 28% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 5438 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 3906. This provides a 28% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 5693 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 1820. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 68%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

4842 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
4757 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
4740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
4084 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3996 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3980 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3965 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3946 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3945 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3904 | 1 | 3906 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
3853 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3778 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3747 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3730 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3637 | 1 | 3707 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
3587 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3527 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3447 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
3435 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 4170
Weekly ....... 3942
Monthly ...... 1961
Quarterly .... -4026
Yearly ....... 3682

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to this moment in time, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 1804 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

At the moment, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 12813 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

We closed the previous month at 3927 after making a new high up two months from the low established back in June during 2020 at 2913. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our monthly indicating range models as was the case last month.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market is still holding positive on the yearly level of our indicating models trading between overhead system resistance and underlying support. It remains in a bearish position on the quarter models warning it is not breaking out to the upside right now. The monthly is negative for now and the short-term weekly is positive. The market has bounced making a new high on the monthly level during July.

This past year alone, saw a significant price drop of about 42%.

RISK FACTORS
NY Crude Oil Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 4740 | 12.83% | 4084 | 2.785% |
WEEKLY........ 5438 | 29.44% | 3906 | 7.022% |
MONTHLY....... 5693 | 35.51% | 1820 | 56.67% |
QUARTERLY..... 5525 | 31.51% | 2020 | 51.91% |
YEARLY........ 9270 | 120.6% | 3512 | 16.4% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


Now incorporating our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs for the past 5 days in price. The low on our Energy Models took place 2 days ago. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new historic highs.

OVERALL TREND

On the quarterly level, this market is still in a bearish position. The NY Crude Oil Futures is in a neutral position on the daily short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

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