Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[jfmcrr]

Nobody knows. The panel is the big unknown. Our fate rests with the panel. As much as we want certainty, there is no certainty here.


We will know more on Sept. 2nd.

We got a single coin flip coming up. One event, either a win or a loss...

And maybe that is 47-53 for a win going in in the dark about everything but the briefs. A week to go and not much illumination.

And then again, maybe it is 38-62 once we know the panel make up or maybe 68-32 if things break the other way and that is a little light on the situation either way.

But it doesn't really matter.

Gimme 10k flips and I'll dance about 51 to 49. One flip at 60-40 and it's either hero or zero, without a series of flips to allow the underlying probability tendencies to manifest.

I'm trusting to luck and the effectiveness of V and I'm levered up. No amount of information about whether or not one of the judges grandkids being ill, whether it tips the scales 0.01 either way or not, has any utility to me. What does is that V works and the decision being appealed was flakey.

Understand; even a coin that flips 70-30 heads can make 3 tails in a row off the get go without moving the cosmos asunder. And we've got one toss and we're all in on or not at all on that toss.

So do you feel lucky? I do. But it's a gamble. And not my very existence at stake. And ...

I'm OK wit dat.