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BRTXQ $1.20 Valuation Even as Worst Case Scenario...

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stervc Member Level  Wednesday, 08/19/20 08:25:04 AM
Re: Airdale1 post# 12220
Post # of 53261 
BRTXQ $1.20 Valuation Even as Worst Case Scenario...

This is a very powerful BRTXQ fundamental valuation that shows through logical deduction how BRTXQ is very likely worth $1.20 per share as a worst case scenario of the Outstanding Shares (OS) being increased to 3,018,986,770 shares.

Within the post I previously made below, I explained how there could be an extra 1,379,783,500 shares added the already Outstanding Shares (OS) of 1,639,203,270 shares which could bring the OS to be 3,018,986,770 shares as a worst case scenario:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157523689

I also explained in that post above how because of one word..."or"... there is a chance that the additional shares will never become part of the OS. For the sake of a worst case scenario of having an OS of roughly 3 billion shares, below was eloquently explained how there is a very good chance that BRTXQ is worth existing in the $1.20 per share area courtesy of Airdale1.

This justifies why Auctus is willing to do the out of the norm logic to be a Joint Partner with BRTXQ to get them through the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy (BK) reorganization to emerge out of BK. You normally would never see an Unsecured Creditor of a company do something like this. Normally they are in line trying to get paid from liquidating the company's assets. Not here. They see something huge to where they believe that it would be better to make sure BRTXQ is funded during the BK and even after they emerge from BK as they are providing them $3,000,000 in funding after providing up to the $15,000,000 DIP Financing to fund BRTXQ after they emerge from bankruptcy to operate for more than a year and to get them back to the NASDAQ as indicated with the earlier posts below:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157581335
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157581329
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157581397

Now the beauty of this post is for all to read how BRTXQ should fundamentally exist to trade in the $1.20 per share area or actually more once the BRTXQ $16.9 Million Tax NOL Carry Forward is incorporated into the valuation of which was left out:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157491233

And for inquiring minds, here's why we know that the common shares are not going to get wiped out as the Equity will be allowed to continue to exist:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157565542

All, please read the BRTXQ valuation post of $1.20 per share below courtesy of Airdale1:
Quote:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157718376
Knowing when to exit a stock is as key as knowing when to enter. I screwed around with some numbers to see what kind of value BRTXQ will have once BRXT-100 is in use. Several obvious estimates are involved.

What is the value of BRTX's Patented Stem Cell Therapy?

(a) Back pain suffers in the U.S. total 31 million.

Estimated back pain suffers in Europe, 70 million. No direct link information was available on this. (b) Europe has 2.25 times the population of the U.S. (c) (d) They are also on median age 5 years older than the U.S. Population. This means a higher percentage of back problems as age equals health issues. Keeping the percentage equal with the U.S. Population, they would have 70 million suffering from lower back pain issues.

Total back pain sufferers in the U.S. and Europe, 100 million.

(estimate) 100 million back pain sufferers, divided by 40. The 40 represents the years 35-75 when most back problems are manifest, that equals about 2.5 million new back problems annually.

(estimate) Lets say 10% actually do something about their lower back problem. That equals 250,000 surgeries annually. Lets say they converted 25% of the surgeries to BRTX-100, that's 62,500 annually. (What would you rather have, general anesthesia, surgery and therapy, or local anesthetic and two injections with a needle? One would have to assume with a less expensive, less intrusive procedure, a larger percentage of patients would elect BRXT-100 for treatment)

(e) The average cost of a micro-discectomy is about $20,000 including therapy, medication and anesthetics. The average cost of a discectomy is up to $50,000, same costs included. Using the lower number as the cost for comparison.

(estimate) Let's use 50% of the cost of a discectomy or $10,000 per BRTX-100 procedure.
New technologies always have higher profit margins so lets have a 20% net income. $2,000.00 net per surgery.

62,500 annual surgeries x $10,000 = $625,000,000.00 gross annual income
62,500 annual surgeries x $2,000 = $125,000,000.00 net annual income

OS total including the 100 shares per dollar from the reorganization agreement: 3,018,987,105

$125,000,000.00 net income / OS 3,018,987,105 = .0414 per share

(f) Forward Price to earnings of 30.21

TOTAL VALUE .04 * 30 = $1.20 per share

SOURCES:

a) 31 million back pain sufferers in the U.S.:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188871/adults-in-the-us-with-low-back-pain-by-region/

(b) Europe's Population:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/continents/europe-population

(c) U.S. Median Age:
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-median-age.html#:~:text=Europe%20has%20a%20median%20age%20of%2042.7%20years,is%2051.4%20while%20the%20female%20is%2053.7%20years.

(d) Europe's Median Age
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-median-age.html#:~:text=Europe%20has%20a%20median%20age%20of%2042.7%20years,is%2051.4%20while%20the%20female%20is%2053.7%20years.

(e) Cost of a Microdiscectomy around $20K
https://www.drkushwaha.com/education/much-back-surgery-cost/ NOTE: 2016 prices

(f) Bio-Technology Forward PE average
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html NOTE: 2020 PE values

U.S. Population:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-population


v/r
Sterling


Exit Strategy & Etiquette Thoughts for a Stock
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128822531
I never give investing advice; only my beliefs for risks in a stock.
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