BioRestorative Therapies Inc (BRTX)

[WhiteSahara]

Knowing when to exit a stock is as key as knowing when to enter. I screwed around with some numbers to see what kind of value BRTXQ will have once BRXT-100 is in use. Several obvious estimates are involved.

What is the value of BRTX's Patented Stem Cell Therapy?

(a) Back pain suffers in the U.S. total 31 million.

Estimated back pain suffers in Europe, 70 million. No direct link information was available on this. (b) Europe has 2.25 times the population of the U.S. (c) (d) They are also on median age 5 years older than the U.S. Population. This means a higher percentage of back problems as age equals health issues. Keeping the percentage equal with the U.S. Population, they would have 70 million suffering from lower back pain issues.

Total back pain sufferers in the U.S. and Europe, 100 million.

(estimate) 100 million back pain sufferers, divided by 40. The 40 represents the years 35-75 when most back problems are manifest, that equals about 2.5 million new back problems annually.

(estimate) Lets say 10% actually do something about their lower back problem. That equals 250,000 surgeries annually. Lets say they converted 25% of the surgeries to BRTX-100, that's 62,500 annually. (What would you rather have, general anesthesia, surgery and therapy, or local anesthetic and two injections with a needle? One would have to assume with a less expensive, less intrusive procedure, a larger percentage of patients would elect BRXT-100 for treatment)

(e) The average cost of a micro-discectomy is about $20,000 including therapy, medication and anesthetics. The average cost of a discectomy is up to $50,000, same costs included. Using the lower number as the cost for comparison.

(estimate) Let's use 50% of the cost of a discectomy or $10,000 per BRTX-100 procedure.
New technologies always have higher profit margins so lets have a 20% net income. $2,000.00 net per surgery.

62,500 annual surgeries x $10,000 = $625,000,000.00 gross annual income
62,500 annual surgeries x $2,000 = $125,000,000.00 net annual income

OS total including the 100 shares per dollar from the reorganization agreement: 3,018,987,105

$125,000,000.00 net income / OS 3,018,987,105 = .0414 per share

(f) Forward Price to earnings of 30.21

TOTAL VALUE .04 * 30 = $1.20 per share

SOURCES:

a) 31 million back pain sufferers in the U.S.:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188871/adults-in-the-us-with-low-back-pain-by-region/

(b) Europe's Population:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/continents/europe-population

(c) U.S. Median Age:
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-median-age.html#:~:text=Europe%20has%20a%20median%20age%20of%2042.7%20years,is%2051.4%20while%20the%20female%20is%2053.7%20years.

(d) Europe's Median Age
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-median-age.html#:~:text=Europe%20has%20a%20median%20age%20of%2042.7%20years,is%2051.4%20while%20the%20female%20is%2053.7%20years.

(e) Cost of a Microdiscectomy around $20K
https://www.drkushwaha.com/education/much-back-surgery-cost/ NOTE: 2016 prices

(f) Bio-Technology Forward PE average
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html NOTE: 2020 PE values

U.S. Population:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-population