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Corn (CBOT) (C) - Knee Jerk Low »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 15, 2020

Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction rally from the low established during April. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The historical perspective in the Corn (CBT) included a rally from 2005 moving into a major high for 2012, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2016 forming a declining trend of 4 years bottoming at 3146. On the other hand, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 01/01 from 2012, which tends to warn that the 2012 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2016 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. On the other hand, we have elected two short-term Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 01/01 from this 2016 reaction low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2016. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 3 years in the making.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Corn (CBT), this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 3324 and overhead resistance forming above at 3456. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 20th at 3090, which was down 13 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 20th. This was a key week for at least a temporary low. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 3rd, which has been a move of .0626%.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for three months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 3 months. Meanwhile, the past three months has witnessed a rally of 5.82% percent. A month-end closing below 3226 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 3550 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 3940 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 4646 back during July 2019. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

We are now within the 90 day window for then upcoming Presidential election in the United States.The civility of American politics is effectively extinct. This has resulted in truly undermining the essential requirement of confidence in government necessary to maintain order. Confidence in government on a global scale is being eroded and this is part of the process of the decline and fall of Western Society as we head into the major conclusion of this Sixth Wave come 2032.

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