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Re: NobleRoman post# 6339

Friday, 08/14/2020 7:46:44 PM

Friday, August 14, 2020 7:46:44 PM

Post# of 6773
Predictions MET. NOT exceeded. A quick analysis

Calm down NobleRoman.

I expected "No meaningful revenue growth, which in the current economy is good vs steep losses. Q2 revenues will be roughly the same as Q1."

Q1 numbers are actually not provided. HLIX published Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019 and 6-months 2020 vs 6-months 2019. So I will provide them.

Q1 Revenues = $4.5m
Q2 Revenues = $4.7m

Prediction met.

I expected "Q2 EBITDA likely also the same as Q1, maybe a bit higher"

Security and guarding
Q1 EBITDA = -$726k
Q2 EBITDA = -$375k

Prediction exceeded.

Software
Q1 EBITDA = $780k
Q2 EBITDA = $799k

Prediction met.

I expected "the company should be in a better cash position."
Statements of cash flows show that the company brought in $1.3m from the common stock issuance in Q2 [$1.4m YTD minus $.1m already counted in Q1].
Q1 Cash balance = $617k
Q2 Cash balance = $2m
So they treaded water. Cash was unchanged other than the $1.3m from the stock sale. I wrote that level is good vs steep losses.

Thats it for my expectations. They were MET not exceeded which is still good. Solid ground. No need to skeet everywhere.

Statements of Cash Flows. Net cash used in operating activities is not the same as operating cash flow. If all operating assets and liabilities were constant I might agree with you. But they changed. Take Accts Payable. In Q1 Accts Payable was a minus 259k on cash. Meaning they spent 259k in cash beyond Q1 expenses to pay down Accts Payable. Accts Payable by end of Q2 is positive $122k. So they paid less in cash than they expensed. Ergo the company has additional cash because they did not pay some expenses and let current liabilities accumulate as Accts Payable. That does not mean the company is operationally better, it means they delayed paying vendors relative to Q1. The swing from -259k to +122k is a 381k difference to cash that has nothing to do with operations.

So youd have to do math to remove the effect of changes in operating assets and liabilities to determine if operating cash flow was truly positive. Im not saying they did or didnt make positive operating cash flow. Its just premature to declare that the company has positive operating cash flow with the numbers they give.


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