Anavex and Microsoft
In the mid 1980s PCs (personal computers) became affordable and useful. I started doing my biology teaching work on (remember them?) a PC Junior. Compared to today's desktop computers, so slow, so lacking in features. With a rudimentary word processor and spreadsheet, I could construct tests, teaching materials, and record grades. As rudimentary as the technology was, it was nevertheless a great improvement over typewriters, pens, and on-paper records.
I taught advanced placement biology in a local high school. My classes had a number of really smart, computer-competent students; who so very helpfully guided my implementation of the then rudimentary computer technology into the preparation of course materials, etc.
I distinctly recall that one spring, in 1986, just a few weeks after Microsoft offered their IPO (initial public offering) for the sale of new stock in their company, one of my computer-competent students said that I should spend just a few hundred dollars with a new MSFT (Microsoft) equity position.
I thanked him, saying, "Well, thanks. Keep me posted how this company develops." He did. A few years later he was getting his PhD in advanced electrical engineering. By then share prices of MSFT were way above the price in the high $20's in 1986. Every time I looked, the MSFT share price had continued to climb. I would wait for a big fall-back, and get in at some "more reasonable" share price. Sure. Reasonableness never appeared. I never reaped any rewards from an early position in Microsoft.
Might Anavex turn into a pharmaceutical Microsoft? Microsoft achieved its success because it had products and services no one else had, and for which a multitude of buyers have continued to want. Could the new drugs owned by Anavex eventually, in many years, make the company a multi-billion dollar entity? Knowing the company's science, I believe this, ever slowly, will be the case.
But it won't happen in the near term. The company is not likely to be profitable until 2023 or 2024. Anavex won't have revenues in the billions until some time later in the decade. I understand that. For me, two considerations, regarding my moderate AVXL holding.
First, Anavex may not succeed, for any number of yet unknown reasons. Therefore, I've invested only money on Anavex that if lost will not in any way affect my larger personal finances. From the start, with my first AVXL purchase in 2016, I recognized it would be many years before the company would be successful. More recently, I've targeted 2023 as my sellout-or-hold year. If matters progress as I anticipate, I'll be holding my AVXL position for many years following; probably adding to it as new discretionary funds appear.
That's the second point. I haven't bet my ranch on the company. My lifestyle will be unaffected if the company fails. But just the opposite if it succeeds, as anticipated.
I mention all of this because the vast majority of posts here deal ever so ominously with daily or short-term AVXL share price trends. At this moment, it's up 6 cents "rebounding" from a larger several-day price slide. For me, no big price deal; up, down, or sideways. Like a number of other Anavex investors, my time perspectives are years out. Short-termers are welcome to present their perspectives, which for me sometimes are entertaining reads. But I'm looking out to 2023. I have an investment, not a daily share-price play. Different styles. We long-termers just sit back and watch. (And have noted that not a single event or clinical finding has appeared that could stop the progression of corporate successes. The science it both valid and good; and, I believe, will prevail by 2023.)
Best wishes to all who follow Anavex Life Sciences Corp. Very likely, Anavex will become a pharmaceutical Microsoft.
