NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[alexander77]

My thesis why NWBO will show superior results is based on the presentation of Marnix Bosch, CTO of NWBO at the inaugural Glioblastoma (GBM) Drug Development Summit being held at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel in Boston, Massachusetts on Dec 11 2019.
link: https://nwbio.com/wp-content/uploads/Boston-Presentation-v0.2.pdf

First of all you should know presentations need to be accepted before shown in public.

Slides 3+4+6+7: Shows that NWBO can explain how DCVAX-L works. DCVAX-L has a clear working mechanism and it is important for the FDA and EMA that you can explain how your product works when you are filing for commercial approval.
Slide5: shows that DCVAX-L can be immediately used+produced when the GBM patient meets the criteria for the treatment.

Slide8: Positive P3 results will result in FDA and EMA approval (P3 trial in the US, Canada and Europe)

Slide9: multiple injections for DCVAX-L to keep boosting the immune system. I like it, because I do not believe one sole injection is sufficient to have a permanent change in immunity to defend against cancer. It is a fixed schedule of injections, which makes it easy for oncologists to perform and to plan. Multiple injections=more money for shareholders
Slide 9: 90% of all patients have received DCVAX-L, which means that almost everybody agreed to crossover. It must be that not only the "placebo" patients wanted it when their disease progressed, but also that oncologists must have really pushed their patients to give it a try. Why would they do that? The only reason I can think of is that oncologists must have felt really comfortable with DCVAX-L. Could it be because all oncologists have experienced/heard about positive results from phase 2 patients and compassionate use patients that are unblinded?

Slide 16: more unmethylated than methylated patients
Slide 17-21+24 : historical data (Temodar+radiation):
==> mOS methylated patients: 21,2 months
==> mOS unmethylated patients: 14,7 months

results from the DCVAX-L trial from the entire population (placebo, crossed-over group to DCVAX-L and DCVAX-L from the start):
==> survival at 2 years: 46,4% (survival at 3 years 28,2%)
==> interim data at 2018: survival at 2 years methylated: 66%
survival at 1 year unmethylated: 86,4%, 2 years 32,6%

Of course results are unblinded, but I find it very hopefull that 66% of the methylated patients were living more than 2 years (whereas in the best historical studies, data shows that 50% of the methylated patients died at 21.2 months). I also find it encouraging that 86,4% of the unmethylated patients were still living at 1 year, making the odds high that the unmethylated DCVAX-L patients would do better than 14,7 months in historical data (certainly when you see that 32,6% were still alive at 24 months)+because of the fact that 34% of the top 100 of longest living patients were unmethylated..
Keeping in mind that most of the placebo population agreed to cross over, makes me conclude that DCVAX-L increases the life expectancy of unmethylated and methylated GBM patients.

IMHO we have a clear winner and a breakthrough in GBM treatment.
Personal PT $5-8/share (excluding DcVax direct pipeline)