Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU) - Possible Low »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 1, 2020

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2010 moving into a major low in 2016, the market has bounced back for the last 4 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2019. However, where there were 2 reversals elected, there was also a Super Position which took place with 1 Bullish Reversal elected warning that this immediate signal has been suppressed by the opposite force warning we may not see immediate follow through.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Gold & Silver Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 14966 and overhead resistance forming above at 15487. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 27th at 16056, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 16056 to 15190. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 27th reaching 16056 has exceeded the previous high of 13101 made back during the week of May 18th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 19 weeks overall.

Interestingly, the Gold & Silver Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 4 months since the low established back in March.

Critical support still underlies this market at 9071 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

The Gold & Silver Cash Index opened within last year's trading range which was 10825 to 6585. Right now, the market is still trading within last year's range with the last print at 15453. The last time such a similar pattern took place was 2016. Nonetheless, the market is still trading above the opening print for the year which was at 10786. As long as this market remains trading above 11164 yet above the opening print on a closing basis, then a year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

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