Dan,
In a word, "No."
I am not wavering in my commitment to Avita. So long as the company's technology continues to be the front running solution for people's suffering from burns and disfigurement, I will not leave.
Many people believe they have valuable input when it comes to investing advice. Some will praise while others will pull down clouds of doom and even despair. We might wonder how truthful these people are, especially when we see ultra strong egos getting in the way---bragging is never attractive. For me, it signals devious behavior with questionable motives.
Reading your post addressed to me last night, I was conflicted---knowing I had to think very carefully about my response. At 3:30 this morning I awoke, thinking about my response and quickly knew what I had to say. So, then...here goes:
1.We are living in a gloomdemic.
2.There is no easy solution within view.
3. Investing 101 holds that we invest in worthy vehicles, protecting seed capital always.
4. You know what they say about a rising tide lifting all boats, right?
Adding this up, I know within myself that it's not the time to be risking fresh capital basing decisions on hope, faith or politics.
I am trusting nobody---at present.
I trust no investment thesis---at present.
I am my "first-&-foremost leader" when it comes to taking advice. While I have spendable cash available without straining anything, my instincts are shouting loud and clear at me to resist the temptation. After all---
February 2nd was the last time the wife and I went out to a restaurant. For us this is hardly normal.
Early February was the last time we shopped for groceries without a protective mask. I love engaging with others---strangers are always welcome. Hugs are as common to me as farting, only more loving, I suppose.
Bottom line:
These are bizarre times in which we live, calling for extraordinary measures. Above all, I see this as a time to question everything we are told or encouraged to believe AND ACCEPT, and this means challenging and second-thinking even myself! It's not enough to walk in the footsteps of my opinion or that of anybody else; No, I have to constantly reevaluate so as to arrive at the most sensible point-of-determination for me.
Mistakes will be made but I owe it to myself to present my very best, always---and my conclusions must feel comfortable within me or I won't share them.
Now then, I am not putting additional cash into any stocks currently. I continue to hold fast to vehicles I especially like, Avita being one of them, certainly. But even here I'm on record for having maintained I will not add fresh cash until I see us close to the $20/share range. At barely above $21 I really wanted to take action but some of what I've said above advised me otherwise. If we could drop to pre-reverse split $5/shares as is nearly the case, then there's simply too much going on to validate any investment thesis. In short, there's got to be a recognizable pattern in sight for me to feel confident.
As I see it, we are not living in an era that could justify thinking 1+1 equals 2. Sure, yesterday, last month, January 30th would have had me thinking I must be nuts to question such an obvious thing. But today I can't go to a favorite restaurant. I can't joke with customers (strangers) at Sam's Club. No, these are extraordinary times.
Looking forward I see a few troubling things:
1. I see no "cure" on the horizon.
2. I don't believe a simple one or two stage shot will protect my life any time soon.
3. I know---above all else---that I've got to hunker down and accept that life is harder today than it was in most of my previous years. This calls for my determining extraordinary measures that will equip me to deal with extraordinary times wrought by extraordinary crises not seen by anybody I know. This, alone, tells me I'd be a fool to trust anybody to know more than me.
Accepting shaky, unstable ground beneath my feet is the most difficult situation in which I find myself. But it is what it is and difficult or not, I can't turn away from my first responsibility in life---that being to take care of myself and those I love.
Final thoughts:
The stock market is not exciting me these days. I'm not expecting this to change any time soon. So I've got to rein in my expectations and I need to do that immediately.
I'm not adding up portfolio value daily as I'd done for years. Now I just tally on Friday evenings to force myself to face up to how my portfolio management is going. While asset values have dropped considerably, I have a land purchase of four years ago that is rocketing higher, so things aren't totally skewed.
During these disappointing times, I've focused much more on a language program I bought into and I am enjoying the discipline. I have also pretty near doubled my exercise time---spending about two hours daily at core exercise and aerobics (cycling). I also spend more time with my critters---goats, donkey, dogs, and ponies. And then there's my wife who has been the blessing of my life.
This is an ugly time in which we live but as I add things up I'm coming to realize that the ugliness is really an expression of disappointment and not the life being lived. I have so much to live for and it's all enjoyable. More and more I'm thinking that I'll leave the gloom and doom to politicos, TV evangelists and egoistic folks believing they know something I don't. My time is better spent doing what I can to make this a better world for me and mine. And that includes anybody seeking comfort from others.
As for how long this difficult period will last? I don't know. But I do know it will depend upon how we define "difficult period."
My hunch is that I'm coming out of this vortex best described as a state of confusion brought about by new and strange difficulties. I will either find my way or I won't. But I will never stop trying. And I am now convinced that investing is not a viable process for me, at least not today. So I focus on other things as explained above.
We humans are an interesting lot for we have spirit. The trick is in figuring out how to unleash that spirit. For me, it begins with accepting that there is no absolute ground zero point in sight. So the journey continues.
Dan, I wish you and all others here the very best life has to offer.....as always.
Len
