Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

M- (&raf-)

I am not the most competent ... since it is a scientific / medical issue ...

By other words ...

Is JT a good public speaker? No … but he speaks only when he “has to” speak. (I mean, he speaks when the CEO “has to” speak, e.g. quarterly call or Tv appearance in a financial program.)
Could be the company PR better? Yes. Is it the worst? No.

It is so funny (I mean boring, pathetic) how many poste(r)s know the good Powerball’s number … on the next day.

Indicative examples (including but not limited to):

- Location of the patent case: Do anybody think they would like to lose the trial … and it is the reason of Nevada? Covington is one of the best patent lawyer … I am sure they choose the location carefully, they had a reason behind it. The outcome could be the same everywhere … other location does not mean a granted win.
- New analysis of Mori … make arguments, facts (e.g. USPTO consider Kurabayasi) more plain and simple for the Judge: Everybody assume that the Judge – any Judge - passed the 4th grade … Bhat made the analysis after he knows the view of Judge Du, did not do it before the trial
- Settlement: No question – I do not have any doubt – Amarin would like to settle (“we emphasized for many years that the courts can be unpredictable in such matters”) but Hikma and Reddy offered unacceptable conditions. Amarin did not have a – real – choice other than go to trial. I have always been fascinated to see the reaction to play calling. If it works, it was genius; if it did not, it was a terrible play call. e.g.: Seattle had to throw the ball. The New England’s defensive alignment did not leave them any other choice.
- “Milking”: The compensation of the management (and the Bod) is not extreme; it is average. (“Long-term incentive awards include stock options and restricted stock units and the value of such awards is generally targeted at the 50th percentile of our peer group.” “Mr. Thero’s base compensation was adjusted to $700,000 per year, which was below the 25th percentile of other Chief Executive Officers in our 2019 peer group. …For 2019, Mr. Thero’s target cash bonus potential, which was 75% of his base compensation and slightly below the 50th percentile for other Chief Executive Officers in our peer group.”) Furthermore, JT could not “milk” as much during the next 10 years as in case of $30+ pps (e.g. BO). btw, a prediction: he will exercise 750.000 option (@$3.40) before 11/10/220.
- GIO vs BO … did not sell a company: Meanwhile – most likely – JT is a person who is talking with potential partner / buyer, he has a guidance from the BoD and he could not decide anything alone. We do not know that anybody gave an offer or did not … but we know that none of the potential buyer (if any) thought that their offer is good enough to convince the shareholders since no public offer was made (If the Co turned down an offer the buyer could announce it w/o their consent / support.). Furthermore, it is not about GIA or BO but about value. I do not care if GIA has a lower value than a BO if this value is better than the best offer …
- pps: it is nothing more than the (current) sentiment of the market about the Company (‘s future) … it is not relevant on a long-term. Sometimes the pps does not have “any” connection with the reality … and I am not aware of any stock that just go up always. Compare the actual pps to the ATH is silly … consider the pps out of context is lame. e.g.:
• $18 offering: Meanwhile the pps was over $18 during the last month – before the offering – it was below $18 during the previous 2 months
• FDA approval: it is not uncommon – especially nowadays – that a pps get a hit after the news … just check (most of) the recent approval

So on …

All together: most of the posts are not corporate law or financial or business issue but medical …- if Amarin did everything as claimed by the “experts”, the pps would be the same today as it is now.

Impossible to convince somebody – who did not manage a multibillion company, a multi hundreds employees – who has theories w/o an experience, knowledge.

You could find a solution for all problem of the world … in any pub …

Best,
G

ps.: JT did not have to give any 2020 guidance, but “nothing” was wrong with it. It was not bullish but based on base case (including unknown elements … not Covid or the Order but the speed / rate of the script increase). Furthermore, it is not uncommon to give a guidance after an event.