Powerful find. Love last paragraph pg3–believe partner/JV in 2020.
Great find!
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.July24, 2020Mike Kozak, (416) 350-81523of 460days, and act as the final catalyst and de-risking event prior to a re-partnership. We also believe the NPRI will succeed in improving public opinion of the project, and provide added “comfort” to potential larger-tier partners that otherwise may not have been willing to take on perceived “reputational risk.” As such, we believe a JV partnership at Pebble will be a 2020 event, likely shortly after theROD and 404 Wetlands permit, though potentially before. A re-partnering event if/when it occurs will bethe single most important de-risking event for NAK and likely the largest positive catalyst for its share price. That said, travel restrictions related to COVID-19 may have impacted potential JV-partners’ability to conduct sufficient on site due-diligence over the last several months, and as such, there is risk to our 2020 re-partnering forecast. In any case, for “catalyst driven” institutional investors, we recommend owning Northern Dynasty shares ahead of a re-partnership announcement, particularly because we believe this to be a near term (2020) event.Exhibit 2. NAVPS BreakdownSource: Cantor FitzgeraldMAINTAINING SPEC. BUY RATING, INCREASING TARGETFollowing the positive Final EIS, we believe a favorable ROD and 404 Wetlands Permit should follow later this quarter, completing the Federal Permitting process at Pebble, and attracting a JV-partner. We are therefore increasing our target multiple to 1.00x NAVPS7.5%from 0.75x NAVPSpreviously, and maintaining our Speculative Buy rating. This drives an increase to our52-week target price from $2.00/C$2.50/shareto $3.50/C$4.50/share. If/when a re-partnershipdoesoccur, which we believe will be a 2020 event, we would expect the stock to trade closer to intrinsic value (1.0x NAVPS) of $3.67/C$4.58/share(in-line with our target price)and potentially significantly higher, depending on the partner, and the terms of the partnership. Following a positiveRODand 404 Wetlands Permitat the Federal level, and should State permitting advance in an objective, apolitical, science-based manner, our target pricehas significant room to the upside.
