Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)

[wwalker3]

If you use the historical market cap all time high that was attained in 2011 it had a $2.2B market cap with 50% ownership of project. Since they own 100% today ($2.2B x 2 = $4.4B) NAK have would have an adjusted market cap based on doubling of the ownership. It would be appropriate to add at least a 50% premium since we are now 9 years closer to the permit. This would add 50% time premium then you get $6.6 billion / 550 million shares (conservative f/d count) to get $12 per share. While this valuation method is based on the NAK all time high traded back in 2011 with some adjustments it doesn’t account for the mineral wealth attributable to each NAK share and is therefore very short sighted.

The second method is superior in that it accurately accounts for the value of all the minerals in the Pebble deposit. If gold is priced at $1800 an ounce then one ends up with 186.06 million GEOs. This is derived by converting the copper, silver, and molybdenum to gold equivalent ounces as follows:

Gold…..71 Million oz at $1800/ oz (We’ll use $1800 for easy math even though spot price is higher.)

Copper…..57 Billion lbs x $2.91/lb = $165.87 Billion value (Today’s spot price is $2.91.)
$165.87 Billion/ $1800 = 92.15 Million Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs)

Molybdenum….3.4 Billion lbs x $11.79 = $40.08 Billion value (Today’s spot price is $11.79 per lb.)
$40.08 Billion/ $1800 = 22.27 Million GEOs.

Side Note: The math converting $26,000 per metric ton to pounds is based on the fact that there are 2204 pounds per metric ton. Therefore the math looks like this:
$26,000 / 2204 = $11.79 per lb Molybdenum.

More at https://twentydollarsashareorbust.com/2020/07/nak-valuation-modeling-supports-26-per-share-today/#.XxdS_ecpAVB