As Fmello pointed out earlier, we got hammered last night Down Under. It serves us well, providing us with advance notice that something is happening that will most likely impact on things for us here in the States.
Being a committed long, here are a few items I see which may help:
1. The quarterly earnings review came out this week. While it didn't indicate a groundbreaking new revenue stream, it clearly demonstrated that the redomiciling definitely made good sense. Now behind us, I await Avita finding a more stable footing in the stock market environment shattered by Covid-19 and various other issues affected by politics. For me, personally, most conspicuous is that we added seven (7) additional burn centers over the course of the quarter. We are now under contract with more than half of the burn centers in America. Undeniably we are now past the 50% point on the road to becoming heralded as the "standard of care."
2. Despite horrendous impact on every aspect of business represented by public trading status, we held our own rather magnificently in my opinion. Initiatives continue to move forward where possible with numerous earlier ones being pursued via clinical launches both new and continuing. I sense an air of calm exhibited by DR. Perry for which I am grateful. "Steady as she goes!" is a fine way to bring home the ship.
3. Today we're seeing the shoreline splashing a bit. So it raises the question:
How much should we be--or are--threatened?
Let me suggest readers consider doing what I do:
Set a price point that would have you/me buying more shares. Obviously it has to be a smart price well beneath the prevailing cost basis. More than that, however, is to determine a fire-sale price point that couldn't damage your longer range plan.
Prior to the reverse split, I'd set (in my mind) a $5/share threshold. This translates into an identical price point today of $25/share.
There's a caveat, however: Today we are a nation faced with an out of control pandemic. For me that spells "All bets are off" at least for the moment. What this means is that while many would support my $25 thesis, I'm not so sure that the pandemic doesn't cast a still more darkening cloud over things.
Looking at the momentum factor today bringing us more than $2 lower, I believe I will nibble at $25 but will do so more cautiously than earlier anticipated.
More later as the picture develops and we have greater clarity.
Roundup:
There are some who will put down management, company technology, and whatever soothes the savage spirit within. And I believe the majority here recognize those individuals for what they are, or aren't, as the case may be.
For the record, I'm older than most here. I could not be a happier man with the exception of not being free to be with friends in favorite haunts. Too, there's the constant threat of the terrible illness responsible for so many deaths and internal disfigurements to say nothing of the permanent losses to those left behind.
This is what I'm doing:
I am looking past today, past next month, next year. I'm making deliberate moves to remove myself from a time-based continuum. This is not a time for me to count on anything but hanging onto those things most dear to me---my wife, my friends, my life as defined by my estate and the freedom to live well. Waking up and kissing my wife is the perfect blessing for my day. Knowing I have the freedom to order food online without subjecting myself to needless health risks is of paramount importance.
In short, I've been resigning myself this week to accepting that I cannot change the course of the Corona virus. Nor can I save lives destined to become the next wave of victims.
But there's one thing I believe I can do:
I can ask folks to let go of immediate gratification. We buy, sell and trade stocks for profit, fun and a sense of identity. But there are time-based circumstances very much a part of the investing cycle, and undeniably so, at that.
Thus it is that while it'd be wonderful to read that one of my main portfolio picks issues groundbreaking news regarding a fantastic development, I'm not willing to allow myself such foolish fantasies. For now I'm looking at what I have good reason to expect over the course of the next year to two years. Anything really exciting along the way between then and now? A little of excitement never hurts, right?
The hardest part of this for me is accepting there's a new paradigm in play and I must accept it. To do less is to willfully damage myself in countless ways.
So then, I'm asking others to think about what their market affiliation is all about and then consider revising landmarks so that acceptance becomes easier.
Thank you.
