Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[jessellivermore]

Handicapping the trial....

The stock market is about gambling. My college roomate's father was Howard J. Samuels who was the first Commissioner of Off track Betting (OTB) in New York..Called "Howie the Horse". He was very progressive and ran ads in all the papers with headlines like "have a cup of coffee and a daily double"..He also had the temerity to compare the horse track to the Stock Market and that drew the ire of the Chairman of the NYSE...Samuels replied "Yeah watered stocks don't get the saliva test...

Looking at the upcoming Amarin Appeals trial...It is essentially a binary event because the likely outcomes are either Du gets affirmed or reversed..Because her errors were primarily procedural with couple of factual error thrown in..a remand is unlikely..(she could be made to repeat third year of Law School)...

So what are the implied odds..We are currently at a PPS of 7$...This is a very unusual situation where the PPS reflects almost solely the effect of the Du.. decision..The drug itself has not lost its therapeutic value or its potential market...It is perfectly reasonable to estimate if Du is reversed the PPS will climb back to the pre Du PPS of over $21..That represents a 2:1 return on your bet..and that assumes if you lose the price goes to zero...The reality is the PPS is very likely to return to the 5$-7$ level..since the current 7$ level represents a heavy discount on Du's decision and fails to adequately account for the large markets that Amarin still holds and will be able to hold..The important thing here is do not sell your stock if Du is affirmed..Its going to sting if that happens but it is not going to be long term fatal..

If Du is reversed the stock will go above $21..and you will be getting 2:1 on your money..So if you think Amarin has a 33% chance of winning the appeal you should be betting the farm..Particularly if you understand that if she is affirmed you will still be getting most of your money back provided you do not panic and sell immediately after the decision is announced...

":>)m JL