Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[B60611]

Imo, it's a huge reach to infer that Missling would amend the agreement because he knows he is sitting on bad data and covets the ability to sell a measly 2 million more shares (which is solely an automatic calculation based on the total number of outstanding shares now vis a vis the original agreement) at a terribly depressed price. Per the original agreement, he always had the ability to sell more than 10 million shares without shareholder approval so long as the average sold price was above $3.42. So we're to believe that he is afraid the SP is going to fall so far below $3.42 that the average sold price will also fall below $3.42, despite numerous opportunities to sell well above that price? How far would SP have to go down before average price dropped below $3.42....to $2.50? So again, we're to believe Missling was desperate to amend the agreement so he could sell 2 million more shares for $5 million? Why not just sell them in June and July, bring in far more than $5 million, while simultaneously averaging up? Even if he announced bad data in August, Missling could sell significantly more than 10 (or the newly allowed 12) million shares before the average price dropped below $3.42 and he needed shareholder approval to sell more?

The more plausible explanation would be that he does not expect price to drop, and thus amending the agreement and increasing the average price floor (before shareholder approval is required to sell more shares) from $3.42 to $4.92 is bullish. Perhaps it is a signal, akin to his symbolic stock purchases. Or perhaps more likely it's just a neutral part of ordinary business and no reflection on data. But practically speaking, if the data isn't great, selling LP shares now while the SP is high is far more useful than amending the agreement. If it is really good, wait until SP appreciates before selling, but again, amending the agreement would have had no impact on that.

I'm out of posts for today.