NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Evaluate]

you wrote:

The home run thing:
I remember her saying a 'second (or additional?) home run', which made us infer a first.

See Post 169879:
includes:

IkeEsq:

And I sat right across from Linda Powers. I was taking notes the entire time and I even wrote up what was actually said and posted it here. She said that a long tail in the survival curve was a homerun. She said, when asked what they were waiting for once 233 OS events were reached, that they want to get as much data as possible about how large and how long the tail is. She never said that they were waiting for a homerun or that they would continue the trial until they got one.
IMO, she was being purposefully vague precisely because anything she said would be blown out of proportion by people here. Rightly so, it would seem.

See also Post 154765:
includes:
NWBO 2017 Annual Shareholder Meeting wrap up.

What are we waiting for once 233 OS events have occurred? The number of OS events is not an automatic trigger to cut off the trial, it is a floor.
Until you reach 233 OS events you cannot stop but you do not have to stop when that threshold has been reached.
They can only see the blinded data.
In immunotherapy, there is a big focus on the long tail. A long tail in a survival curve is a home run.

Also see Post # 154790:
Quote:

"We have to weigh that... how much of an additional home run would we get if we continue vs. going with what we have now." Barcode transcribing Linda Powers

Post # 154868:
barcode27:
includes:

LP on the long tail:

The 233 OS events is not an automatic trigger, it's a floor, and we wouldn't unblind before that.
But there's nothing that says we would automatically stop then.
What we do is, we look, and all we're allowed to see is blinded data, so we're looking at aggregate blinded data.
In immunotherapy, the big focus is the so-called long tail of the survival curve. That is the home run.
And what it means to have the long tail, is that the survival steps down, and when people continue to live, the tail goes way out here to the right.
If a treatment achieves a long tail, that's the home run.
I mean, part of it is the slope of the graph, that's great too.
But the big home run is the long tail.
And you're seeing that being talked about with all of these therapies... with checkpoint inhibitors, everyone is super-excited because something like anywhere from 12 to 20% of the patients who respond in the first place are in a long tail and go for a couple of years.
What people don't generally clarify is that even in the best case of cancers like melanoma where you're talking about a 25% response rate, you're talking about 25% of the 25%, talking about like 5% of the total participants in the trial.
If some treatment were to come along and have 20 to 25% of the total patients in the trial, that would be considered a very large tail, and the question is how big and how long.
That's what we want to see, and that's what you as shareholders should want to see.
We share your anxiousness like it's Christmas morning.
But when we stop the trial and unblind, the data collection for the purposes of the trial stops. After that, we will never know the full extent of the long tail. The long tail is the key focus.