NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Yes Lykiri, I agree with you completely up to and including your statement that at least 15 of 25 placebos of the last group of 108 were
dead and no more than 10 placebos were still alive at the time of interim analysis (March 2017).

My estimate of 8 placebos who are PFS beyond 36 months is a worse case scenario. If there were a maximum 8 such placebo patients, most of them may have originated from about 74 placebo patients who originated from the first 182 patients enrolled and who were no longer individually represented (censored) in the 2018 JTM publication.

Furthermore, it is hard for me to take literally the November 2018 SNO update when it implies that between March 2017 and about May? 2018, 12 of the 66 placebos (18.2%) who crossed over, progressed so late after their surgery. How many of the about 10 most recent placebos surviving at 3/17 had not yet crossed over and did so between 3/17 and let's say 5/18? How many of the approximately 74 surviving placebos who were at 3/17 on trial for more than 30 months, crossed over so late in the game? There may have been a few but it is hard to believe that a total of 12 placebos crossed over so late. I have always wondered whether there was such a massive late crossing over or perhaps a purposeful final approximation at the 2018 SNO update which gave us the 90% crossover figure.